Lessons From the Presidential Debate and a Look Ahead to the FOMC
Sep 12, 2024
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Initial Thesis – Senate More Important Than Many Recognize
This week, we witnessed what was the first – and potentially final – presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Anticipation for this event was high, with the public initially favoring Trump, as reflected in prediction markets. This preference was largely attributed to Harris's lackluster debate track record. However, the dynamics shifted during the debate itself, with reactions in prediction markets indicating that Harris emerged as the victor, challenging initial market sentiment.
While the long-term imp...