Most of the Federal government is funded until Oct. 1, but the Department of Homeland Security’s funds expire this Friday. This was part of the deal negotiated between Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and the White House. While the deal passed the Senate with a bipartisan majority, the margin in the House was only three votes as Democrats opposed the deal.
Democrats refused to approve DHS funding for more than two weeks due to widespread opposition to the administration’s immigration policy, and specifically the harsh action of agents from ICE and Border protection. Democrats want tough checks placed on ICE actions ranging from no masks and officer identification to prohibiting entering schools and homes without appropriate warrants. The administration and Congressional Republicans to date haven’t accepted these conditions, setting both sides on a collision course.
While ICE and Border Patrol come under DHS and are the targets of Democratic anger, the Department also includes FEMA, TSA, and the Coast Guard. The shutdown would impact these organizations that have widespread support across the political spectrum.
While Republicans can work with the president to get the legislation through the House, even with the Republicans paper thin majority, spending bills are subject to a filibuster in the Senate requiring 60 votes. With 53 Republican Senators, they will need seven Democrats to join all Republicans to secure Senate passage.
The shootings in Minneapolis have made the issue of ICE funding harshly partisan, and from my experience working in Washington, I know how tough it can be to move members, who fear a backlash from their core supporters. Democratic House members from safe Democratic seats may have confidence of victory in November, but much of their political energy is spent avoiding a primary. The issue of ICE funding has become a core progressive Democratic issue, and I believe that most Democrats worry that a vote to approve a DHS spending bill that doesn’t have the anti-ICE provisions will cause a primary challenge. During my service in the House, I distinctly remember conversations on a few key votes when concern about a primary was my boss’s central focus. This political dynamic will make a DHS spending compromise a steep hill to climb.
Netanyahu to Washington
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to be in Washington on Wednesday to meet with Trump. According to widespread reports, the topic is going to be Iran and what actions the two nations may take. Netanyahu wants to discuss with Trump about the recent talks between the U.S. and Iran.
The two leaders will also discuss the situation in Gaza. Trump has been working on his Board of Peace and a commitment to bring peace to the region with a focus on Gaza. The White House has indicated that the Board of Peace will have its first meeting on Feb. 19 with a focus being on raising money for rebuilding Gaza. This is an issue that the Netanyahu will have a great interest in, and it can be expected to be a topic in the bilateral talks this week.
Fed Chair
In an interesting twist, Fed Gov. Stephen Miran, who was on leave from his position as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, announced that he was resigning from his White House position. The unusual relationship between the White House and the Fed governor raised questions when Miran voted for the larger interest rate cuts advocated by Trump. With the term of Jay Powell as chair ending in May and the president’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed chair, the move heightened speculation as to whether Warsh would replace Miran or replace Powell should he leave the Board once his term as chair ends on May 15. His appointment as Fed governor runs until 2028. Most Fed chairs leave the Board once their term as chair comes to an end.
