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BTC/SPY Consolidation Episode Suggests Meaningful Move Ahead, HYPE Unlikely to Face Significant Churn from Prediction Market Competitors
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:CHOPPY PRICE ACTION, STATUS QUO ON MACRO DRIVERS: Not much changed over the past 24 hours, with BTC continuing to trade in a tight range. We saw some intraday volatility on Iran-related headlines, with negotiations appearing to stall, though the ceasefire has been prolonged, leaving the geopolitical backdrop largely unchanged. Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh delivered somewhat hawkish commentary, which briefly pressured risk assets, but does not...
DeFi Exploit Could Stymie On-Chain Credit Creation Near-Term, STRC + MSTR Demand Remains the Key Variable to Watch
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:WEEKEND WEAKNESS PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY DEFI DELEVERAGING: Crypto sold off over the weekend, with BTC falling from ~$78.5k to below ~$74k and broad weakness across altcoins. While geopolitical rhetoric likely contributed at the margin, the primary driver appears to have been the DeFi exploit and subsequent deleveraging. TVL across major lending protocols declined sharply, with Aave and Spark both down ~35%, reflecting risk reduction across on-chain credit...
Choppy Price Action, Watching for Post-STRC Air Pocket, Good to See Tether Back in the Market
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:CHOPPY SESSION WITH MIXED INTERNALS: It was a choppy day for crypto, with BTC largely rangebound between ~$73.5k and $75k and finishing roughly flat. Price action further out on the risk curve was somewhat constructive, likely driven by short covering. SOL outperformed, up ~5%, while ETH was modestly lower and HYPE lagged, down ~2.5%, likely reflecting some profit taking.STRC DYNAMICS STILL DRIVING NEAR-TERM FLOWS: As discussed, STRC...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:LARGE STRC ISSUANCE FAILS TO LIFT BTC: Strategy likely deployed significant capital into BTC today via STRC issuance. Volumes reached ~$1.5B, the highest on record, implying roughly $1.1–1.3B of incremental demand. Despite this, BTC finished lower on the day, retracing from an early move higher and trading back toward ~$74k. The inability to hold gains in the face of this magnitude of flows suggests meaningful supply above...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:GEOPOLITICS STILL FLUID, BUT RISK ASSETS CONTINUE TO LEAN CONSTRUCTIVE: Price action was notably weak over the weekend following reports that US-Iran talks had stalled, alongside news of a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This morning, reports surfaced that Iran is considering abandoning uranium enrichment as a condition for ending the conflict. Combined with today’s reversal, this suggests the blockade may be exerting pressure and...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:STILL A BEAR MARKET RALLY, BUT NOT ONE TO FADE YET: I continue to view this as a bear market rally, but I am not rushing to fade it. Yesterday, we made minor adjustments to model portfolios, moving some BTC further out on the risk curve.FINANCIAL CONDITIONS EASING AT THE MARGIN: We have seen spreads tighten, VIX and MOVE roll over, and overall financial conditions improve. This...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:GEOPOLITICS EASE, RISK ASSETS RESPOND: We received very constructive news post-market close, with the US and Iran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire. This appears to coincide with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing cargo ships and tankers to resume transit through a critical global trade route. Markets reacted quickly, with risk assets rallying as the geopolitical risk premium began to unwind.CRUDE COLLAPSE SIGNALS RISK PREMIUM...
Crypto Markets Lean Optimistic on Potential War Resolution / STRC Bid, I Still Favor Patience
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:CRYPTO CATCH-UP: Crypto staged a modest rebound over the past 24–36 hours, with BTC briefly reclaiming $70k before settling near $69k and ETH modestly outperforming. This move appears to reflect a partial catch-up to equities, which began pricing in incremental optimism SoH traffic late last week.HORMUZ OPTICS: A key driver of improved risk sentiment is emerging evidence that shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz may be...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:POSITIONING: NO LONGER “KEY RISK” BUT NOT A CONTRARIAN SIGNAL EITHER: Positioning has improved meaningfully over the past few weeks, reducing what was a key risk coming into the year. The latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey shows the largest increase in cash levels since COVID, alongside a notable decline in investor sentiment. However, absolute levels remain far from extremes, leaving positioning in “no man’s land.”...
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NOTE: As part of our transition from FS Insight to Fundstrat Direct, my notes will transition from sean. farrell@fsinsight. com to sean. farrell@fundstratdirect. com. Please add the new address to your contacts or safe sender list to ensure uninterrupted delivery. The research and insights you rely on will remain exactly the same — only our name and sender address are changing. If you have questions, please visit our FAQ here....
NOTE: As part of our transition from FS Insight to Fundstrat Direct, my notes will transition from sean. farrell@fsinsight. com to sean. farrell@fundstratdirect. com. Please add the new address to your contacts or safe sender list to ensure uninterrupted delivery. The research and insights you rely on will remain exactly the same — only our name and sender address are changing. If you have questions, please visit our FAQ here....