Crypto Research

NOTE: As part of our transition from FS Insight to Fundstrat Direct, my notes will transition from sean. farrell@fsinsight. com to sean. farrell@fundstratdirect. com. Please add the new address to your contacts or safe sender list to ensure uninterrupted delivery. The research and insights you rely on will remain exactly the same — only our name and sender address are changing. If you have questions, please visit our FAQ here....

NOTE: As part of our transition from FS Insight to Fundstrat Direct, my notes will transition from sean. farrell@fsinsight. com to sean. farrell@fundstratdirect. com. Please add the new address to your contacts or safe sender list to ensure uninterrupted delivery. The research and insights you rely on will remain exactly the same — only our name and sender address are changing. If you have questions, please visit our FAQ here....

NOTE: As part of our transition from FS Insight to Fundstrat Direct, my daily notes will transition from sean. farrell@fsinsight. com to sean. farrell@fundstratdirect. com. Please add the new address to your contacts or safe sender list to ensure uninterrupted delivery. The research and insights you rely on will remain exactly the same — only our name and sender address are changing. If you have questions, please visit our FAQ...

DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:PRIVATE CREDIT STRESS BROADENING: Apollo announced markdowns within one of its BDCs. Alternative asset manager equities, already in a downtrend since mid-August, saw renewed pressure, with Apollo down roughly 9% intraday.HIGH-YIELD SPREADS MOVING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION: High-yield spreads have widened to new YTD highs. While spreads remain tight on an absolute basis, the rate of change matters more than the level. Given crypto's historically meaningful sensitivity...

DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:OCC PROPOSAL INCREASES ODDS OF CLARITY ACT PASSAGE: The OCC released proposed rules to implement the GENIUS Act, taking a restrictive stance on stablecoin yield pass-through that aligns with the banking lobby and current Clarity Act language. While subject to a 60-day comment period, the proposal reduces regulatory uncertainty and likely increases the probability that the Clarity Act advances this year.CRYPTO DEMONSTRATES RELATIVE RESILIENCE AMID GEOPOLITICAL VOLATILITY:...

DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:STRONG UPSIDE SESSION. BTC rallied to just below $70,000, briefly tagging that level after the close. ETH/BTC and SOL/BTC each gained roughly 5%, with broad alt outperformance.INITIAL IMPULSE DRIVEN BY SHORT COVERING AND LIQUIDATIONS. The rally began around 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday alongside a sharp decline in Bitcoin open interest, with the price moving quickly from approximately $64,000 to $66,000. Funding rates were decisively negative heading...

DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:RISK-OFF TONE LED BY GROWTH EQUITIES. Crypto began selling off Sunday night, effectively front-running a broader risk-off move across equities. The decline coincided with renewed weakness in SaaS and other AI-exposed growth stocks, which accelerated lower as the AI disruption trade extended. Given crypto’s persistent correlation to higher-duration growth assets, it followed that weakness.MACRO CROSSCURRENTS REMAIN IN PLAY. The move is consistent with the macro pressures I...

PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat SUPREME COURT RULING’S IMPACT ON CRYPTO: MARGINALLY POSITIVE, NOT A GAMECHANGER WHAT HAPPENEDThe Supreme Court struck down the administration’s emergency tariffs, ruling that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose duties. The decision reaffirms that tariff authority rests with Congress under Article I and underscores that economically significant executive actions require clear congressional authorization.The Court did not address whether previously collected tariffs...

DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BROADER POSITIONING REMAINS EXTENDED. The latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey shows cash allocations near historic lows, the second-lowest reading on record, while investor sentiment is the most stretched since mid-2021. While crypto positioning tends to clear more quickly than traditional markets, a broad de-grossing across equities and credit would likely spill over.STRESS SIGNALS IN PRIVATE CREDIT ARE WORTH MONITORING. Blue Owl’s decision to continue gating...

DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:SECTOR CORRELATIONS CONFIRM BITCOIN’S GROWTH SENSITIVITY – Bitcoin’s rolling 90-day correlation versus the 11 iShares U.S. sector ETFs from BlackRock shows Technology in a clear lead at just under 0.60, with Consumer Discretionary a distant second near 0.47. This reinforces that BTC remains tightly linked to cyclical, growth-oriented equity segments. The recent defensive rotation in equities is therefore a marginal headwind for crypto, though insufficient on its...

DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:COOLER CPI REVERSED THE HAWKISH MOVE FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK. Headline CPI came in at 2.4% YoY, below expectations, while core was in line. The hawkish shift in rate expectations following earlier labor data was fully unwound, with December Fed Funds futures repricing toward ~3%. While most projected cuts remain beyond Powell’s tenure, today’s data meaningfully eased near-term pressure on duration-sensitive assets and provided a clean...