Sean Farrell ^AC

The Solana Thesis, From the Founder: A Conversation with Anatoly Yakovenko

Warsh Delivers Hawkish Jackson Hole Message, But Rising Yields Could Bring the Treasury Put Back Into Focus, SOL Gets a Meaningful Supply-Side Tailwind

Fed Chair Warsh delivered a decidedly hawkish message at Jackson Hole, pushing back on the idea that financial conditions are restrictive and suggesting weaker payroll growth may not be enough to elicit a dovish response from the Fed. While the resulting rise in yields creates a near-term headwind for crypto,…

Adding Risk as Post-Squeeze Follow-Through Remains Constructive, ZEC/CYPH Added to Model Portfolios (Portfolio Rebalance)

Hotter PCE Does Little to Change the Macro View Core PCE came in slightly hotter than expected today, continuing to show a somewhat less constructive inflation picture than core CPI. Part of that divergence reflects differences in composition, with today’s PCE reading receiving a meaningful contribution from financial services and…

Crypto Market Update – August 2026

Treasury Leans Further Into YCC-Lite, MSTR Builds a $1.6B “Plunge Protection” Reserve, Post-Squeeze Flows Continue to Improve

Treasury Continues Moving Toward More Activist Duration Management Treasury continues moving in the direction of more activist duration management. Last week, Treasury increased the size of its long-duration buyback operations from roughly $2B to at least $4B per operation. Mechanically, that increase is relatively modest, but I thought the signal…

Treasury Doubles Down on YCC-Lite Signal, Spot Flows Appear to Be Supporting the Rally Post-Squeeze, SOL Has an Overlooked Weekend Catalyst

Treasury Doubles Down on Yesterday’s Signal Crypto continued to rally today despite a more challenging backdrop across traditional markets. Equities traded lower and yields retraced much of yesterday’s decline, while crypto broadly continued to push higher. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments today reinforced the main takeaway from yesterday. As discussed, the…

Treasury Signals Willingness to Engage in YCC-Lite, Could Provide Tailwind into YE, HYPE/PURR Lead on News of U.S. Regulatory Progress

Treasury Buybacks Spark a Major Crypto Rally Crypto finally delivered the volatility we have been waiting for. BTC rallied roughly 7%, ETH gained close to 20% at one point, and HYPE was up more than 20%, following Monday’s discussion that BTC realized volatility had fallen to roughly the 1st percentile…

SEC Proposal Looks Constructive but Crypto Fails to React, Data Center Political Risk Broadens, Broader Positioning Remains Crowded

Short Covering Still Appears to Be Driving Much of BTC’s Strength Crypto held up relatively well today given the weakness across technology, and BTC briefly traded toward $65K in the futures market. However, similar to yesterday, a meaningful portion of the move appears to have been driven by additional short…

BTC Short Covering Drives a Strong Bounce, 1st Percentile Realized Vol Suggests BTC Overdue for Significant Move

Short Covering Helps BTC Finally Join the Rally Today was an interesting tape. Major equity indices traded lower, while AI CapEx beneficiaries and precious metals performed well, bonds continued to sell off, and crypto broadly rallied. Perhaps most notably, BTC finally participated after lagging many of the recent leaders. A…

Bitcoin is overdue for moves of 30% or more, Fundstrat says