Tom Lee, CFA ^AC

Macro Update & Top Ideas – September 2026

Fed Governor Waller leaning to “hold” pushes odds of a Sep hike down to 50% (on way to zero, in our view). We still expect “Sup”-tember, a contrarian bullish month.

Video: Fed Governor Waller indicated his inclination to hold in Sept, and his rationale focused on the fact that disinflationary forces are underway. This helped drop the odds of a Sept hike down to 51%. The key is today’s August jobs and August CPI next Friday. Also 4 of the…

Video: Macro Minute: Fed governor Waller leaning to “hold” pushes odds of a Sep hike down to 50% (on way to zero, in our view). We still expect “Sup”-tember, a contrarian bullish month.

Video: Fed governor Waller indicated his inclination to hold in Sept, and his rationale focused on the fact that disinflationary forces are underway. This helped drop the odds of a Sept hike down to 51%. The key is tomorrow’s August jobs and August CPI next Friday. Also 4 of the…

Video: Macro Minute: While inflation concerns ramp, U Mich surveys show inflation expectations sitting near long-term trends.  Our contrarian take remains that Sept is an up month

Video: Today, a chorus of pundits and strategists have warned of a down Sept. And we realize the seasonality shows this to be the case, as Sept is historically the worst month for stocks, and even true in midterm years. But we believe the pivot point is that the stock…

Video: Macro Minute: 5 reasons we are contrarian positive on equities in September, despite negative seasonals

Video: We discuss the contrarian reasons we are positive on equities in September. We also analyze the distortion to Core PCE coming from ‘software accessories’ and how this is contributing to 1/3 of the excess inflation. The Fed even acknowledges this issue, yet, we do not hear any economists nor…

Video: Macro Minute: Friday’s Jackson Hole is the final ‘clearing event’ for this week and we expect stocks to rally, as odds of Sept hike should drop to zero (35% today).

Video: We expect Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech to lead to a market rally. 4 of the last 5 Jackson Hole speeches saw markets gain in the following week. We think the odds of a Sept Fed hike should drop towards zero from 35% today, and that should act…

Video: Macro Minute: July Core PCE essentially inline, NVDA strong fiscal 2Q = 2 clearing events over. NVDA, as expected, will aid a rally in AI complex. Friday is Jackson Hole, last clearing event = new highs.

Video: Nvidia $NVDA came in solidly with >100% revs growth on ~$100 billion revs, just astounding. And this along with $CRM $CRWD reports, should lead to a tech rally. This is consistent with our view that these were clearing events. The July Core PCE was better than it looked as…

3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for upside breakout in equities. ETH +54% and just posted 30% weekly gain, largest since May 2025 and Nov 2021, both of which led to >167% subsequent gains.

Video: There are 3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for S&P 500 to reach 7,900-8,000 by month end. Moreover, leadership since June 30th has come from crypto with Ethereum up 54% and gaining over 30% last week alone. Historically, this is a launch point for a larger…

Video: Macro Minute: 3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for upside breakout in equities. ETH +54% and just posted 30% weekly gain, largest since May 2025 and Nov 2021, both of which led to >167% subsequent gains.

Video: There are 3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for S&P 500 to reach 7,900-8,000 by month end. Moreover, leadership since June 30th has come from crypto with Ethereum up 54% and gaining over 30% last week alone. Historically, this is a launch point for a larger…

The AI downstream trade continues to strengthen, particularly crypto. We look at equities most highly correlated to ETH and BTC. We also still expect S&P 500 7,900-8,000 by month-end

Video: The AI bottleneck story is stalling as data center opposition is now resonating with voters. This probably explains why crypto, particularly Ethereum, has been notably outperforming gaining 46% since June 30th. Ethereum is a low energy network. But the bigger story is that crypto adoption is growing as Wall…