Tom Lee, CFA ^AC

Macro Update & Top Ideas – August 2026

Video: Macro Minute: 5 reasons why a Fed hike arguably ‘hurts’ credibility

Video: While many pundits are calling for the Fed to hike, in order to restore credibility, we are taking a contrarian take. If the Fed were to hike, we find 5 reasons this may actually hurt Fed credibility. Please click here to view our Macro Minute (duration: 6:18). ______________________________PS: If…

A soft July Core CPI should lead to an upside breakout (our base case). $NVDA deal with Wall Street lowers cost of financing = higher AI P/E.

Video: We expect the July core CPI to be softer than consensus of +0.22% and thus lead to an upside breakout for equities. The driver is basically this report could tilt markets back towards a dovish tilt and away from the IDS, or inflation derangement syndrome, taking place in the…

Video: Macro Minute: A soft July Core CPI should lead to an upside breakout (our base case). $NVDA deal with Wall Street lowers cost of financing = higher AI P/E.

Video: We expect the July core CPI to be softer than consensus of +0.22% and thus lead to an upside breakout for equities. The driver is basically this report could tilt markets back towards a dovish tilt and away from the IDS, or inflation derangement syndrome, taking place in the…

Video: Macro Minute: Oil rises as ‘longer war’ gets increasingly priced in for Iran-US, but the key this week is July CPI. The ‘AI downstream’ sectors continue to gain, which are $MAGS, $IGV and Crypto #ETH #BTC

Video: Oil has risen 11% over the past few days as Iran draws a harder line around negotiations. While not a welcome development, we think the key focus this week will be July Core CPI. We expect this report on Wed to show a further weakening of inflation and thus,…

Markets still have excessive ‘inflation derangement syndrome,’ and July jobs and July CPI should quell some fears. We see S&P 500 reaching 7,900-8,000 by end of month

Video: We believe we are witnessing the 3rd derangement syndrome in 30 years. This time it is ‘inflation derangement syndrome,’ and this is causing investors to fret about resurging inflation and thus, want the Fed to hike needlessly. We discuss how July jobs and July CPI likely reduce fears to…

Video: Macro Minute: Markets still have excessive ‘inflation derangement syndrome,’ and July jobs and July CPI should quell some fears. We see S&P 500 reaching 7,900-8,000 by end of month

Video: We believe we are witnessing the 3rd derangement syndrome in 30 years. This time it is ‘inflation derangement syndrome,’ and this is causing investors to fret about resurging inflation and thus, want the Fed to hike needlessly. We discuss how July jobs and July CPI likely reduce fears to…

Video: Macro Minute: Despite ‘investment gains’ driving $18.44 of EPS in 2Q26 so far, organic S&P 500 EPS growth still 21% and 2027 EPS now +$8 to $408.  We now see S&P 500 reaching 7,900-8,000 in August

Video: There are some investors criticizing S&P 500 earnings quality. Our analysis shows there are sizable contributions coming from investment gains, but keep in mind, organic EPS growth is still 21% in 2Q26 so far. And 2027 EPS estimates are still rising. We are dip buyers and see S&P 500…

Video: Macro Minute: 6 reasons we expect S&P 500 to make new highs in August.  And why we expect no hike in 2026

Video: We discuss the 6 reasons we expect markets to make a new high in August. And we also discuss why we do not expect the Fed to hike in 2026, despite many calls from economists for the Fed to hike. Please click here to view our Macro Minute (duration:…

Video: Macro Minute: 5 reasons we believe the structural bottom is in for the AI and ‘bottleneck’ stocks

Video: We discuss the 5 reasons why we believe the structural bottom is in for AI stocks. A large factor is we believe the massive leverage unwind is largely over. This started in Korea and seems to have reached its nadir today. Please click here to view our Macro Minute…