Mon, March 30, 2026 | 9:10PM ET

Another Green Monday, But an Unconvincing Bounce

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Discussed in today’s video:

Tactical Bounce: Monday’s setup played out as expected, extending the streak to five consecutive green Mondays since the start of the war. However, the magnitude was notably weaker, with BTC up ~1% after reversing most of a ~3.5% intraday gain. While we did finish in the green, the move was relatively muted compared to prior Mondays.
Flow Quality: Under the surface, today’s move lacked strong confirmation from flows. Volumes were relatively muted, and we saw a persistent Coinbase discount throughout most of the session, suggesting limited spot demand.
Relative Strength: Crypto held up well relative to equities, particularly as tech and semis saw renewed weakness. This relative outperformance is constructive, although the lack of strong flows tempers the signal.
Dollar Watch: The dollar has quietly staged a meaningful rebound, moving from below 96 to above 100 in recent weeks. This reflects a combination of higher rate expectations, risk-off flows, and geopolitical shifts. With short dollar positioning crowded coming into the year, this move likely represents an unwind that could extend further.
Labor Market Data: Labor market data this week is the key macro focus outside of the war. Recent price action suggests markets may be shifting from inflation concerns toward growth concerns, particularly as oil rises while yields decline. If labor data confirms continued deterioration, it could reinforce recessionary fears and increase volatility.
Bottom Line: The trend in the data suggests an increasing likelihood of further downside volatility. The burden of proof remains on the bulls. Stay nimble and maintain dry powder.

Another Green Monday, But an Unconvincing Bounce

Tickers in this video: BTC -0.38%

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