Crypto Research
0 Results
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Bloomberg, Artemis, Fundstrat GETTING UP TO SPEEDIn last week's note, I discussed some of the reasons that I favored the continuation of this bear market rally. Among those were the anticipated roll-off of the geopolitical risk premium that had been weighing on crypto, positioning in traditional markets that were less saturated in risk, positioning metrics in crypto that suggested traders were outright defensive, and the...
PORTFOLIOS: Source: Bloomberg, Artemis, Fundstrat Source: Bloomberg, Artemis, Fundstrat PLEASE SEE END OF NOTE FOR COMMENTARY ON PORTFOLIO CHANGES BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT The market has found some relief since Tuesday on the back of a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. We have seen oil come off its highs, VIX and MOVE roll over, and spreads start to tighten. This has led to a commensurate rally in crypto,...
NOTE: As part of our transition from FS Insight to Fundstrat Direct, my notes will transition from sean. farrell@fsinsight. com to sean. farrell@fundstratdirect. com. Please add the new address to your contacts or safe sender list to ensure uninterrupted delivery. The research and insights you rely on will remain exactly the same — only our name and sender address are changing. If you have questions, please visit our FAQ here....
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat SUPREME COURT RULING’S IMPACT ON CRYPTO: MARGINALLY POSITIVE, NOT A GAMECHANGER WHAT HAPPENEDThe Supreme Court struck down the administration’s emergency tariffs, ruling that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose duties. The decision reaffirms that tariff authority rests with Congress under Article I and underscores that economically significant executive actions require clear congressional authorization.The Court did not address whether previously collected tariffs...
Skeptical That “The Lows” Are In, but Risk/Reward Has Improved, Deploying Some Dry Powder (Portfolio Rebalance)
IMPORTANT NOTICE: I will be out of the office through Friday and will publish selectively if warranted by market conditions. PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat _NOTE: SEE THE END OF THIS NOTE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE LATEST REBALANCE._ STOPS GET HUNTED The crypto selloff accelerated throughout the weekend, with BTC falling to ~$74k, ETH to ~$2,150, and SOL to ~$96. 24-hour liquidations across perpetual futures markets reached...
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat WARSH IS FED CHAIR NOMINEE Reports late Thursday afternoon indicated that the White House was preparing to support Kevin Warsh as the nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair. Warsh surged to over 90% probability on Polymarket around 7:00 p.m. on Thursday, overtaking Rick Rieder. On Friday morning, President Trump announced via Truth Social that he was moving forward with Warsh as his...
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat _Note: Changes to both portfolios are discussed at the end of this note._ THE BREAKDOWN Entering January, my view on crypto remained measured from a medium-term perspective but tactically constructive. In my January 6th strategy note, I argued that while the broader setup for 2026 still pointed to a choppier first half and a more compelling accumulation opportunity later in the year, the...
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat EXECUTIVE SUMMARYBitGo is a cycle-tested institutional crypto infrastructure platform, founded in 2013, with a custody-first, full-stack offering spanning qualified custody, staking, prime brokerage, settlement, and stablecoin infrastructure.The company went public on Thursday, raising approximately $200 million in primary proceeds at $18 per share, implying a ~$2.1bn market cap.BitGo uses qualified custody as a wedge to onboard institutional clients, then increases monetization per dollar...
PORTFOLIOS Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat Source: Artemis, Fundstrat THE BREAKDOWN Entering January, my view on crypto was still measured from a cyclical perspective, but tactically constructive. In my January 6th strategy note, I argued that while the broader setup for 2026 still pointed to a choppier first half and a more compelling accumulation opportunity later in the year, the near-term risk reward had begun to skew favorably. The key drivers behind...
CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: Bloomberg, Fundstrat _See commentary on the rebalance at the end of this note._ TACTICAL SETUP LOOKS CONSTRUCTIVE Sometimes, a simple calendar turn is all an asset class needs to fall back into favor with investors. In the weeks leading into year-end (following BTC’s rejection at ~$94k), I laid out the reasons it made sense to detach from crypto markets. We were...
Thank you to everyone who joined my annual outlook call today. Below are several high-level takeaways, along with the latest Core Strategy and Crypto Equity portfolios. Click here to download the presentation deck. THE HEADWINDSNEAR-TERM RISKS MOUNTING: Q1 risks to crypto include a potential government shutdown, renewed trade policy volatility, waning confidence in AI capex returns, and uncertainty around the Fed Chair transition, all of which could pressure markets currently...