Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Markets waiting for August CPI this coming Friday. Our view remains the Fed will not hike in Sept even as Fed futures see 63% odds
VIDEO_:_ This Friday is the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks. And this date is also the release of August Core CPI. This is...
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First Word
Fed Governor Waller leaning to "hold" pushes odds of a Sep hike down to 50% (on way to zero, in our view). We still expect "Sup"-tember, a contrarian bullish month.
VIDEO_:_ Fed Governor Waller indicated his inclination to hold in Sept, and his rationale focused on the fact that disinflationary forces are underway. This helped...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Fed governor Waller leaning to "hold" pushes odds of a Sep hike down to 50% (on way to zero, in our view). We still expect "Sup"-tember, a contrarian bullish month.
VIDEO_:_ Fed governor Waller indicated his inclination to hold in Sept, and his rationale focused on the fact that disinflationary forces are underway. This helped...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: While inflation concerns ramp, U Mich surveys show inflation expectations sitting near long-term trends. Our contrarian take remains that Sept is an up month
VIDEO_:_ Today, a chorus of pundits and strategists have warned of a down Sept. And we realize the seasonality shows this to be the case,...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: 5 reasons we are contrarian positive on equities in September, despite negative seasonals
VIDEO_:_ We discuss the contrarian reasons we are positive on equities in September. We also analyze the distortion to Core PCE coming from 'software accessories'...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Friday's Jackson Hole is the final 'clearing event' for this week and we expect stocks to rally, as odds of Sept hike should drop to zero (35% today).
VIDEO_:_ We expect Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech to lead to a market rally. 4 of the last 5 Jackson Hole speeches saw markets...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: July Core PCE essentially inline, NVDA strong fiscal 2Q = 2 clearing events over. NVDA, as expected, will aid a rally in AI complex. Friday is Jackson Hole, last clearing event = new highs.
VIDEO_:_ Nvidia NVDA -0.90% came in solidly with >100% revs growth on ~$100 billion revs, just astounding. And this along with CRM -2.00% CRWD -0.83% reports, should lead...
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First Word
3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for upside breakout in equities. ETH +54% and just posted 30% weekly gain, largest since May 2025 and Nov 2021, both of which led to >167% subsequent gains.
VIDEO_:_ There are 3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for S&P 500 to reach 7,900-8,000 by month end. Moreover, leadership since June...
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Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: 3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for upside breakout in equities. ETH +54% and just posted 30% weekly gain, largest since May 2025 and Nov 2021, both of which led to >167% subsequent gains.
VIDEO_:_ There are 3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for S&P 500 to reach 7,900-8,000 by month end. Moreover, leadership since June...
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First Word
The AI downstream trade continues to strengthen, particularly crypto. We look at equities most highly correlated to ETH and BTC. We also still expect S&P 500 7,900-8,000 by month-end
VIDEO_:_ The AI bottleneck story is stalling as data center opposition is now resonating with voters. This probably explains why crypto, particularly Ethereum, has been...
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