First Word
We continue to expect a benign August Core CPI (Fri am). This likely leads to a "face ripper" rally in the next week or so.
VIDEO_:_ Markets are cautious heading into August CPI (Friday am). And in our view, this is a setup for a "face ripper" rally to come...
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First Word
Fed Governor Waller leaning to "hold" pushes odds of a Sep hike down to 50% (on way to zero, in our view). We still expect "Sup"-tember, a contrarian bullish month.
VIDEO_:_ Fed Governor Waller indicated his inclination to hold in Sept, and his rationale focused on the fact that disinflationary forces are underway. This helped...
First Word
3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for upside breakout in equities. ETH +54% and just posted 30% weekly gain, largest since May 2025 and Nov 2021, both of which led to >167% subsequent gains.
VIDEO_:_ There are 3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for S&P 500 to reach 7,900-8,000 by month end. Moreover, leadership since June...
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First Word
The AI downstream trade continues to strengthen, particularly crypto. We look at equities most highly correlated to ETH and BTC. We also still expect S&P 500 7,900-8,000 by month-end
VIDEO_:_ The AI bottleneck story is stalling as data center opposition is now resonating with voters. This probably explains why crypto, particularly Ethereum, has been...
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First Word
August 2026 Top Large Cap and SMID Cap Core Stock Ideas Market Update
PLEASE JOIN US AT 2PM ET ON 8/19 FOR OUR MACRO UPDATE & TOP STOCK IDEAS WEBINAR REGISTER HERE. TO DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK FOR OUR...
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First Word
A soft July Core CPI should lead to an upside breakout (our base case). $NVDA deal with Wall Street lowers cost of financing = higher AI P/E.
VIDEO_:_ We expect the July core CPI to be softer than consensus of +0.22% and thus lead to an upside breakout for equities. The driver...
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First Word
Markets still have excessive 'inflation derangement syndrome,' and July jobs and July CPI should quell some fears. We see S&P 500 reaching 7,900-8,000 by end of month
VIDEO_:_ We believe we are witnessing the 3rd derangement syndrome in 30 years. This time it is 'inflation derangement syndrome,' and this is causing investors to...
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First Word
Fed not expected to raise rates Wed, but QT could resume. MU P/E is 5.3X now vs 12.6X in Nov 2025... sell-off in bottlenecks seems overdone
VIDEO_:_ We would be surprised if the Fed hikes in the July meeting (Wed). There is a possibility the Fed might again resume QT, but...
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First Word
War could be escalating, triggering risk off. But we believe these pullbacks are ultimately buyable.
Equity markets are under pressure Thursday, ostensibly owing to two factors: (i) large-cap tech earnings that were not 'good enough' and (ii) escalation around the...
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First Word
Key development this week is inflation is resuming falling 'like a rock.' AI trade under pressure but much of it may be technical due to margin calls, while the fundamentals remain strong.
VIDEO_:_ The big stories this week are the continued selling in Korea/AI stocks and the downside surprise in CPI and PPI. In our view, the...
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