The final full week of trading in August is now over. With just one trading left in August, the S&P 500 is up almost 3% thus far for the month, while the Nasdaq Composite is up about 4.1%. This upswing might well have been bolstered by seasonality trends that exaggerate or magnify market reactions. As Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee explained, “We are in the dog days of August,” when “[many] traders are away and market volumes are lighter.”
Aside from seasonality, two key “clearing events” played a role in this week’s gains, in Lee’s view. The first was Core PCE numbers. Though they came roughly in line with consensus expectations, Lee’s team viewed the numbers “under the hood” as actually indicating that inflation is softening. The largest contributor to PCE inflation (10 basis points out of 25) was financial services – in other words, arguably driven by stock-market gains causing an increase in fees collected.
The second major clearing event for Lee was Nvidia‘s quarterly earnings report. The AI monolith reported numbers that Lee described as “just astounding,” helping to propel the rest of the AI complex higher in Wednesday after-hours trading.
Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton was similarly impressed by Nvidia’s results, suggesting that ‘It was [Nvidia CFO Colette Kress’s] declaration that next year is going to still be much higher than what the street expects that got the stock really going in the after hours.” In discussions during our weekly research huddle, he added, “I think that that’s really the game changer. […] I think that that’s likely going to be something that causes technology to turn back higher. I think the market’s going back to new highs very quickly and it’s going to be led by Nvidia.”
But what part of tech? A Fundstrat team member asked Newton, “Would you do semis or software?”
“Both of them,” Newton responded. “In general, you know, I think you want to be long tech between now and year end and you spread your bets.”

Chart of the Week

Part of the week’s earlier gains were erased on Friday afternoon following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s keynote speech at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, with some interpreting his remarks as hawkish in tone. Lee sees this as likely a temporary move, noting that in recent history, one-week forward returns after Jackson Hole have been positive four out of five times. We can see this in our Chart of the Week.
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Key incoming data
8/24 8:30 AM ET: Jul Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexTame8/25 9:00 AM ET: Jun S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SATame8/25 10:00 AM ET: Aug Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame8/25 10:00 AM ET: Jul New Home SalesTame8/25 10:00 AM ET: Aug Richmond Fed Manufacturing SurveyTame8/26 8:30 AM ET: Jul P Durable Goods OrdersTame8/26 8:30 AM ET: 2Q S GDPTame8/26 8:30 AM ET: Jul PCE DeflatorTame8/27 11:00 AM ET: Aug Kansas City Fed Manufacturing SurveyTame8/28 10:00 AM ET: Aug F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame- 8/31 10:30 AM ET: Aug Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
- 9/1 9:45 AM ET: Aug F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
- 9/1 10:00 AM ET: Jul JOLTS Job Openings
- 9/1 10:00 AM ET: Aug ISM Manufacturing PMI
- 9/2 10:00 AM ET: Jul F Durable Goods Orders
- 9/3 8:30 AM ET: 2Q F Unit Labor Costs
- 9/3 8:30 AM ET: 2Q F Non-Farm Productivity
- 9/3 8:30 AM ET: Jul Trade Balance
- 9/3 9:45 AM ET: Aug F S&P Global Services PMI
- 9/3 10:00 AM ET: Aug ISM Services PMI
- 9/4 8:30 AM ET: Aug Non-Farm Payrolls

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- his speech had a ‘hawkish’ tone, committed to price stability
- gave a framework for a future ‘reaction function’
- these are music to the bond market’s ear
- long term rates stable and possibly falling
To me, this is a successful “clearing event” and Fed likely quelled bond market tantrums. This is positive. Technology QQQ -0.67% likely sees a return of investor buying as Fed credibility has returned PS: Good for crypto trade to continue to strengthen ETH -2.72% BTC -2.94%