Prices as of 2026-04-22 10:45:34 ET
Ticker Appearances
Crypto - Crypto Strategy
Remaining Patient Ahead of WH Crypto Summit (Core Strategy Rebalance)
CORE STRATEGY Most of the risks that prompted us to turn cautious in early February still persist, so we believe it’s right to remain patient....
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Crypto - Crypto Strategy
MSTR Reloading Presents Opportunity for Bounce, But Broader Picture Remains the Same
CORE STRATEGY There is a chance that MSTR flows spark a short-term bounce here, but assets further out on the risk curve continue to face...
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Crypto - Crypto Strategy
Crypto Climbing the Wall of Worry, Flows Suggest There is Still More Work to Do
CORE STRATEGY With lingering trade war talks and robust economic data dissuading a dovish Fed pivot, we think the potential for downside volatility remains elevated....
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Crypto - Crypto Strategy
The Fog of Trade War (Core Strategy Rebalance)
CORE STRATEGY With the looming threat of an escalating trade war and economic data robust enough to discourage a more dovish Fed stance, we believe...
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Crypto - Crypto Strategy
BTC Tracking Historical Post-LNY Returns Well, FOMC Hurdle Cleared
Developments since the inauguration confirm that the new administration is prioritizing an industry-friendly regulatory environment. Coupled with an easing DXY/yields, a possible TGA spenddown, and...
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Crypto - Crypto Strategy
Headline Risk, Relenting DXY, and Improving Flows Suggest More Upside for Crypto
Recent developments since the inauguration suggest that the new administration is prioritizing an industry-friendly regulatory environment. We believe there is still significant upside headline risk...
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Crypto - Crypto Strategy
HYPE Profits Flow to Base, Solana, Sui, TGA Rundown Could Boost Crypto Prices
CORE STRATEGY: REMAINING TACTICALLY CAUTIOUS, TGA RUNDOWN + EARLY JAN FLOWS COULD PRODUCE NEEDED SPARK In our view, this cycle is far from over. However,...
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Crypto - Crypto Strategy
Crypto Bounce Into Year-End Likely, But All Eyes on 10Y (Core Strategy Rebalance)
CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow...
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Crypto - Crypto Strategy
The World Liberty Bid, ETH Momentum, and MSTR's Nasdaq 100 Prospects
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we...
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Crypto - Crypto Strategy
Adding ETH Beta (Core Strategy Rebalance)
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through...
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First Word
Markets far more de-risked into June FOMC. And +75bp brings rates closer to market expectations.
Since Friday's CPI (higher CPI) and U Mich Consumer Confidence survey (rise in consumer inflation expectations), consensus expectations for June is now a 75bp hike...
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First Word
Investors have become "single issue" voters (inflation)... and Tech + small-caps quietly gaining
The May CPI report (reported Friday), coupled with the U Mich Consumer Confidence survey, showed inflation remains sticky. And while there was some evidence, on...
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First Word
Emerging leadership of Tech + China supports better 2H outlook... more signs forward inflation cooling
As many of our clients have remarked recently, every economic data point is really an inflation report. Repeating the obvious logic: trajectory of inflation impacts...
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First Word
"Soft landing" scenario strengthening. 1980s inflation broken when "goods" inflation peaked. Consumer discounts ahead. Target confirms. Manheim Index shows Luxury + Full-sized tanking.
Investors tell us they don't want to "fight the Fed" and as long as the Fed is tight, they will not touch equities. This is...
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First Word
Nasdaq outperformed post dot-com crash. Yup. And structural labor shortage strengthens demand for Technology in 2022
Signs of economic slowing are becoming more prevalent, allaying concerns that the economy is so "hot" that the Fed needs to further accelerate rate hikes....
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First Word
As probabilities of benign-er outcomes rise, FAANG/Nasdaq should rebound first
The big event this week will be the May payrolls report. This is a case where bad news is good news. A strong jobs figure...
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First Word
Recent cadence of data shows inflation risks cooling = half-full arguments gaining traction. TA Newton believes Bitcoin has bottomed = good for equities
The White House and Fed met Tuesday and this is the first meeting since Powell was re-confirmed. The takeaways from this meeting are not entirely...
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First Word
Multiple signs economy shifting to "buyer's market" vs seller's = downside to inflation = justify stocks strengthening
I had a conversation earlier this week with the owner of one of the largest privately held food producers in the US (tens of millions...
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First Word
Stocks overshot to downside even with inflation risks. Indeed.com shows material weakening in labor markets = reduced wage inflation risk
Inflation and fears of surging inflation are top of mind. There are many causes behind this rise in inflation from supply chain woes, war-related disruptions,...
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First Word
DeMark webinar takeaways - one more selloff then "shocking" rally coming in SP 500 (within days). Crude/nat gas gain peaking...
Today's note is a recap from our webinar with Tom DeMark, founder of DeMark Analytics and Symbolik. com. Tom DeMark has gained a large following...
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