A Defensive rally into 50% retracement = Time to pay attention

Equity markets have now risen roughly 9% in the last 10 trading days(SPX), pushing up into levels just shy of the 200-day moving average for QQQ and 50% retracement area. (61.8% for SPX) While rates have screamed higher on a seemingly hawkish pivot by Powell, (2-yr. yields are set to record one of the largest months of yield gains in over 15 years) the question remains, can this rally persist?   I’m of the opinion that markets should in fact peak out over the next 1-2 weeks, and consolidate at least half of recent gains.  If the selloff breaches 61.8% of this range, then a full retest and break of lows is likely and would point down to SPX-3900-4000.  At present, SPX requires a break of 4455 to confirm this move has begun and has upside resistance between 4543 and 4565.  Only a move over 4600 would cancel this thinking, which sets up for a good risk-reward for trading purposes for those who wish to diversify/hedge/sell after this runup.

The following points are concerning Technically

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