Transportation Stock decline worth monitoring

Well, the new month and quarter got underway with the traditional seasonal tailwind that many expect might kick off a new quarter.  SPX and DJIA showed fractional gains on the day and week, though fell sharply from earlier week intra-week highs to finish near the bottom of the week’s range.   Increasingly, this downward momentum caused by latter week consolidation should start to put more weight on SPX to turn down in greater fashion into mid-April.  At present, one still can’t rule out a bounce to test this week’s highs, but I expect this to prove short-lived and turn back lower.   Importantly, 90- and 180-day cycles from prior highs and lows both intersect early next week, and my cycle composite shows a decidedly more negative bias for April than the rally for March.  Bottom line, a rally back to 4650-75 should prove sellable, while any decline under 4455 kicks off a larger pullback.  Overall, staying defensive looks proper.

Transports excessive decline is seen as a negative   

While the majority of the US Stock market seemed rather “sleepy” on Friday, the violent decline seen in many Transport stocks looks to be a negative technical development that likely continues in the short run.

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