Natural gas breakout should take prices higher into September

Monday’s Equity decline doesn’t look likely to extend too dramatically ahead of Jackson Hole late this week, and it’s thought that this pullback is initially buyable for a push back to minor new highs up to 4350-60 into early to mid-September.  While near-term wave structure and intra-day overbought conditions along with some Defensive outperformance gave some clues last week that a decline was approaching, the resulting selloff hasn’t really accomplished too much to expect this is the start of a larger move lower.  Elliott patterns still look corrective on this decline and intra-day oversold conditions are now in place which might limit this initial selloff.  Overall, my tactical view favors a bottoming out this week ahead of FOMC’s Jackson Hole meeting, and a rally back to challenge and exceed recent mid-August peaks. 

Following a move up to 4350, it will be right to bet on additional downside volatility into early October.  Yet, given cycles are leaning towards early to mid-September peaks, I’m expecting that $SPX should not undercut 4000 on this initial pullback.  The area at 4100 is initially important for traders, lining up near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.   Under that could lead down to 4025 which should be the maximum drawdown on a selloff, lining up with the 50% retracement of the rally up from July.

Treasury yield bounce nearing initial resistance   

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