Gold, Silver likely to shine as US Dollar rolls over

Bottom line, the $SPX bounce needs to surpass 4019 to have real confidence in this move extending. While I’ve expected a rally from 3920-5, there remain two possible areas of concern to this thesis: First, Utilities have staged a minor breakout and are likely to push back to all-time highs.   Second, the DeMark count on Treasury yields actually requires another few days of strength before completion. (Thus, while yields are close to peaking, there needs to be a bit more upside). Any turn back higher in $TNX above 3.36% likely would reach 3.50-3.55, and this very well could result in another minor decline in $SPX before its much anticipated bottom.  At present the key area of interest is last Friday’s intra-day highs of $SPX 4019.  Any advance over this level signals a rally is underway into mid-month.   Until that time, it pays to keep a close eye on this bounce and to watch Yields carefully given recent correlation trends.

Precious Metals likely to show some luster

Gold and Silver finally look to be at an area where an oversold bounce can occur.  Rallies into Year-end look possible, but are likely to prove tactical only, and not the start of a push back to annual highs.

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