US Dollar and Treasury yields likely to rally back to new 2022 highs

The upside follow-through for Equities is nearing initial time and price targets, which likely result in a stalling out/reversal as of Wednesday of this week.  Reasons for an upcoming change of trend have more to do with cycles than “overbought conditions” per se, but intra-day momentum gauges have certainly reached levels which makes this move seem stretched after 200 $SPX points gained in four days’ time.  Utilities, Discretionary and Financials continue to be sectors to overweight, while Technology on an equal-weighted basis has shown far less strength lately than big-cap weighted $XLK.  Importantly, while $SPX has broken its one-month downtrend and has rallied on above-average breadth over the last few days, Equities are nearing a key period this week which has produced changes of trend over the last five of six months into mid-month.  Thus, further rallies post Tuesday’s CPI report should constitute a time to consider hedging/selling for those who tend to be more short-term focused.  Others which have a lengthier buy and hold mantra should postpone initiating new long Equity orders this week, but would be encouraged to consider buying on any weakness into early October.

US Dollar likely to turn back to highs as weakness looks nearly complete  

While the idea of a falling US Dollar makes sense between October and year-end, it looks premature to see recent $DXY weakness extend too meaningfully just yet.

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