Energy weakness should reverse by late January

2023 has gotten underway with a greater than average amount of range-bound consolidation, and prices lie right near levels made last December.  Unfortunately, without any evidence of prices breaking back out above SPX-3900, it will continue to be difficult to think trends are bullish, particularly with AAPL and MSFT having pulled back recently to new multi-week lows.  The detrimental effect of these stocks’ weakness on the SPX and QQQ is likely greater than what many investors realize when other sectors like Industrials, Financials and Healthcare are unable to help markets rally.  Technically, the close Wednesday over 3829.26 means that the Santa Claus rally period was indeed positive, albeit just by a fractional amount.  However, given that rates still look to push back to 4.00% on TNX, and Technology remains weak with a bearish bias in January cycles, I think it’s more likely that this consolidation breaks down under support into next week.  At present, keeping a close eye on 3800(support) and 3900(resistance) makes sense.

Energy lies near key make-or-break in the short run; Yet weakness still likely to hold the larger trend

Energy as shown by $RYE (Invesco Equal-weighted Energy) vs. $RSP (Invesco Equal-weighted S&P) has held up remarkably well given a recently sharp pullback in WTI Crude.

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