Software gradually carving out a bottom; What’s good, what’s not

Near-term US Equity trends are positive but nearing overbought levels as SPX, IWM, and QQQ wrestle with new all-time highs while DJIA remains a laggard.  My analysis suggests that the lows in March should not be revisited on any consolidation into May; however, I do feel that some backing and filling will be necessary following the 10% rally in roughly two weeks’ time.  Sector-wise, Technology, Financials, Industrials, and Discretionary look like near-term outperformers, while Healthcare, Energy, and many defensive sectors are underperforming.   Overall, I like being long precious and base metals, EURUSD, Yen vs. Dollar, while expecting WTI and Brent Crude oil to make important tops.   The degree to which breadth and momentum have expanded in recent weeks is certainly a good sign technically for U.S. stocks, and many European and Asian indices are also in great technical shape.  However, this doesn’t preclude some selling pressure into mid-May, which would line up with a potentially even better risk/reward opportunity to buy dips.  My technical take is that the first important move off the lows for US Equities is nearing completion, and now consolidation likely should be seen as a dip-buying opportunity over the next 3-4 weeks. 

No real change in short-term opinion on indices given Thursday’s minor gains.  Breadth has been far less robust in recent days and largely flat on both Wednesday and Thursday’s trading, despite $SPX and $QQQ having pushed to new highs.  Despite the strong gains in Semiconductor issues, there was moderate weakness on Thursday in Financials, Healthcare, and Consumer Discretionary.

I expect to see some minor consolidation on the heels of this recent push higher, but Thursday’s price action didn’t show any evidence of trend reversal.  Thus, until that occurs on a daily close, trends are positive, but it’s thought that the next 3-5 trading days into next week should present some opportunity to buy weakness.

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