An encouraging rebound but the real test is early next week

Near-term US Equity trends are bullish, and SPX and QQQ seem to have made an impressive bottom near the lows of their respective trend channels, which gives some credibility to the idea that a near-term trading low is either here or very close. Sectors like Healthcare and Energy still look attractive heading into next week, and generally, the Equal-weighted SPX fared a bit better than SPX this past week.  However, Technology seems to be bottoming (also) where it needs to, and Friday’s rebound helped many leading Tech stocks like NVDA, MSFT, META, AMZN all form “Hammer patterns” which typically are present as reversal patterns following a steep selloff.   The ability to break downtrends of this week’s selloff would suggest a push back to new highs should happen right away into mid-November, but it’s important to see Technology start to stabilize following the notable weakness in many Magnificent 7 names this week.   Furthermore, the trend for both US Dollar and Bond yields looks to be higher over the next 1-2 weeks, and it is also important to see how this relationship vs. Equities does, given yields starting to push back higher.   Overall, I expect that US stock indices have entered a much choppier trading environment between now and the end of November.  

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