Thu, December 18, 2025 | 11:13AM ET

Upticks - December 2025

Mark L. Newton, CMT ^AC

Head of Technical Strategy

Upticks – Newton’s Law

Upticks - December 2025 — Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg

Upticks Additions

CSX Corp. (CSX- $36.50)
GE Vernova (GEV- $614.19)
Ulta Beauty (ULTA-$585.98)
AppLovin Corp. (APP- $657.13)
Huntington Ingalls (HII- $321.29)

Upticks Deletions

Stride Inc. (LRN- $66.14)
Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN- $244.19)
Fluor Corp. (FLR-$40.86)
Jacobs Solutions Inc. (J- $132.38)
Deer & Co. (DE- $481.00)

UPTICKS Total Return vs. SPY, Year to Date

UPTICKS Return vs. S&P 500, Since Inception

Upticks One Month Contribution to Performance Relative to SPY (November 17 to December 17)

Upticks Commentary

Below is a technical write-up of eight stocks for this month’s UPTICKS publication, with five additions and five deletions

(All prices reflect closing prices as of Wednesday, 12/17/25.)

ADDITIONS: CSX, GEV, ULTA, APP, HII

CSX Corp. (CSX – $36.50) – Recent breakout to yearly highs worth following.

Support $36, $34.50, Resistance $42.65, $46

CSX Corporation

CSX looks quite appealing from a risk/reward perspective following last week’s breakout to new multi-year highs. As shown above, CSX has now cleared August and October 2025 peaks, along with November 2024 peaks, all on last week’s close above $37.25.

DJ Transportation Average is on the verge of a breakout back to new highs, and CSX looks quite attractive following nearly three years of no progress.

I expect this past week’s breakout to lead CSX up to $42.65 initially and then $46 as Transportation issues start to work much better than in recent years.

CSX is an ideal risk/reward candidate following a breakout to new annual highs, which hasn’t yet become overbought on a weekly or monthly basis.

Given CSX’s likelihood of surpassing prior peaks from 2022, this could mark the start of some greater acceleration for CSX and looks like a candidate that could now play catch-up after years of underperformance.

GE Vernova- (GEV- $614.19) – December’s breakout back to new highs should help GEV show strong performance over the next month

Support- $530, $475; Resistance- $793

GE Vernova Inc

GEV’s five-month range-bound pattern took a turn for the better following last week’s rally back to new all-time highs. Volume expanded on this advance to the highest levels of the year, making this quite attractive to own for the prospects of further gains into 2026.

Initial resistance lies near last week’s peak at $731, but this should prove minor before an extended rally carries this up to $793.

This would represent a 61.8% alternative Fibonacci retracement projection from the rally, which originally started back in April of this year. While not expected anytime soon, intermediate-term targets for GEV lie at $950.

Ulta Beauty- (ULTA-$585.98) – Consolidation since August now yielding to breakout back to new highs

Support- $552, $493; Resistance- $737, $830

Ulta Beauty, Inc

ULTA’s push back above former peaks from 2023 and 2024 is a very bullish technical development, which likely helps ULTA strengthen further in the weeks ahead.

Volume picked up on the recent breakout back to new high territory, and these gains represent a structural breakout of the consolidation pattern since 2023.

AppLovin Corporation (APP- $657.13) – Recent consolidation since September 2025 looks complete

Support- $654, $636; Resistance- $722, $822

Applovin Corporation

APP has managed to repair nearly all of its damage from this past fall, when it fell sharply from over $745, and has managed to challenge its former all-time highs into early December.

Its pattern remains quite bullish despite the base-building in recent months, and the ability to have recovered $547 is thought to be quite positive towards a push back to new highs into January.

The Elliott-wave structure from September proved to be a three-wave decline, and subsequently, the rally back should represent the start to a five-wave push higher into late February of next year.

Momentum has gotten more positive as a result of the recovery from November, and weekly MACD recently pushed back to positive territory.

A weekly close above $722 should have little upside resistance until the first technical resistance in new high territory, which lies at $822.

(Huntington Ingalls- HII- $321.29) – Multi-year base breakout bodes well for 2026 performance

Support- $295, $280; Resistance- $380, $419

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.

HII’s recent October push above 2024 highs represents a larger breakout above peaks going back to 2018.

Weekly charts show this having exceeded three intermediate-term peaks starting with 2018 and bodes well for upside follow-through in the months ahead.

It looks right to favor Defense stocks like HII, which are breaking out to new all-time highs heading into an ongoing uncertain geopolitical climate in 2026.

I anticipate technical strength up to initial technical targets near $380 initially, as the breakout to new highs helps HII’s momentum accelerate in the weeks and months ahead.

Deletions: LRN, COIN, FLR, J, DE

Below, I’ll share analysis on three of these: FLR, COIN, and J.

Fluor – (FLR- $40.86) – Ongoing range-bound situation warrants patience, but it’s tough to favor until this consolidation can be resolved

Unfortunately, the heavy volume decline following FLR’s unsuccessful breakout this Summer has brought about a range-bound period of consolidation in this name.

The attempt to push back higher into October failed before the stock dropped back to multi-month lows.

While currently neutral, not bearish, it’s difficult to see upward progress until this trading range can be resolved. Thus, better opportunities lie elsewhere until this can surpass prior peaks from this past Summer.

Coinbase (COIN- $244.19) – Coinbase’s weakness under August lows is not seen as constructive in the short run

Coinbase Global, Inc

Unfortunately, similar to late 2024, the breakout attempt above a former high failed, creating a pattern of consecutive higher highs, which have both represented meaningful intermediate-term peaks in price.

The decline to multi-month lows this past fall coincided with the breakdown in many Cryptocurrencies, and the high-volume decline doesn’t immediately suggest an appealing buying opportunity, technically speaking.

Until/unless COIN can regain the area of its former breakdown, near $300, I suspect the shares will prove range-bound at best over the next six months, and might lead to additional weakness to test 2025 lows if/when Cryptocurrencies show further weakness in 1H 2026.

Jacobs Solutions (J- $132.38) – High-volume breakdown in November is not promising for the short run

Jacobs Solutions Inc.

The breakdown in prices last month is seen as a technical negative that likely prohibits Jacobs Solutions’ stock from immediately rebounding with the broader market in early 2026.

Last month’s weakness proved to be a large high-volume decline from peak to trough. Unfortunately, this broke an almost one-year uptrend in the stock from spring 2025.

Despite its rebound attempt in recent weeks, this bounce occurred on much less volume than the recent decline, and likely means that additional weakness will happen in 1^st Half of 2026.

Downside potential for J could result in this stock testing the multi-year area of support near $115. This area looks important, technically speaking, but unfortunately, it lies about 15% below current levels.

While I would like to revisit J at a future time, it’s necessary for volume to begin to show evidence that the stock has begun a bottoming process, and that doesn’t look to have occurred just yet.

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Mark L. Newton, CMT, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report, hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships. Neither I, nor a member of my household is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the issuer(s) or has another significant affiliation with the issuer(s) that is/are the subject of this research report. There is a possibility that we will from time to time have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

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