The midterm elections are now only five weeks away. Polls are showing a clear trend towards Democrats.
However, it’s important to begin with a warning about polling.
Polling organizations have never really developed a system that makes up for the loss of telephone landlines. Without the convenience of knowing who is being called via the address of the landline, polling data has become less reliable. Of note for the two parties as the midterm elections approach, polls can likely determine major trends, but calling election results in tight races has become less reliable.
In addition to being more difficult to identify who is being called with cell technology, many simply don’t answer the phone when the caller is not in the address book of the person being called. The combination of correctly identifying the person who fits into the poll’s model and the trend of people not answering their cell phones means that polling has become less accurate.
Keeping that in mind, however, the major trends seen in polls during recent weeks seem reliable in suggesting growing strength for Democratic candidates. Republicans are faced with a president who is conducting an unpopular war, which is leading to higher prices both at the pump and at the grocery checkout counter.
Notably, polling is showing Democratic strength in Republican strongholds such as Ohio, Texas, Alaska, North and South Carolina, Kansas, and Iowa. On the other hand, Republicans do have some pickup opportunities, notably in Michigan and New Hampshire. The current Senate partisan lineup is 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. With Vice President JD Vance sitting in the Chair position to break any tie votes, Democrats need to have a net pickup of four seats to gain control. Losing one of the seats where Republicans believe they have a chance to flip a seat would raise the Democratic bar to five seats, a very steep climb.
Xi visit
While there were no major announcements coming out of the Trump/Xi meeting, the two leaders are clearly developing a good relationship, which is a positive. Issues ranging from Chinese assistance for Iran to U.S. support to Taiwan were likely discussed, though they were not part of any concluding communique, However, it was announced that they would meet twice again this year. President Trump will travel to China in November for an APEC summit meeting, and they will meet again in December, when Xi is expected to come to the Trump Doral Club for a meeting of G20 leaders.
Such high-level meetings are preceded by extensive behind-the-scenes bilateral discussions between diplomats. Whenever leaders such as Trump and Xi meet, there is always the possibility of a headline event, so it’s entirely plausible that last week’s DC summit included the laying of some groundwork for noteworthy announcements later this year.