Midterm Election: What Next?

As someone who has been involved in politics for many years, I had been skeptical of the reported polling results that showed a huge blue wave. The pollsters were among the winners on Tuesday as they correctly called the blue wave that swept the nation.  Whatever methodology they used – it worked.

Before the new Congress takes over, the current Congress returns next week with some big decisions to be made.  A key question to be decided: What Trump initiatives will the Republicans try to pass with their majority that is in control of Congress until noon on January 3, 2027?

Dec. 11 is a big deadline that the bipartisan leadership and the White House will need to deal with.  This is the date that the current Continuing Resolution (CR) expires, and a government shutdown occurs if no budget action is taken.  The alternatives are to pass another CR that runs into next year and hands the tough decisions over to the Democratic Congress, or pass a full-year budget that runs until October 1, 2027. This will be the first test of the new landscape in DC.

While there are still some races to be called, the Democrats will have at least 54 Senate seats and perhaps as many as 56. This is a real working majority, but it is still short of the 60 votes needed to stop a filibuster by Republicans on legislation they and the White House oppose.  It is also well short of the 67 votes they would need to override a Presidential veto.

In the House it is projected that the Democrats may hold as many as 256 seats.  For comparison, in the current Congress, the Republicans only hold 218 seats, a bare majority. Under House rules there is no filibuster, so a united majority can get anything passed if they are united. 

After the big Democratic win, President Trump issued a statement that he was willing to work with the new Congressional majority.  President Trump built his empire in New York City, a city dominated by Democrats; this gives him real-world experience working with Democrats.  Trump has strong ideas, but in my view he is not a hardline Republican conservative. In the end, he likes accomplishments, whether they are ballrooms or legislation.  This will be a big test for the president and his White House team.