Video: Macro Minute: May Core PCE shows 'war inflation' probably peaked, hence, rates low.  Semi and Memory dip is still buyable

In this Macro Minute video, Tom Lee reviews the May 2026 Core PCE inflation report and what the composition of that data implies for the broader inflation trend and interest rates. He walks through how categories such as financial services contributed to the May core PCE reading, compares it with real-time inflation gauges like Trueflation, and discusses how Treasury yields and oil prices reacted. The video also touches on the spread between the 2-year Treasury yield and the federal funds rate, and how recent market pricing has shifted the implied path of Federal Reserve policy. Upcoming macro data and events highlighted include University of Michigan one‑year inflation expectations, home prices, JOLTS, the ECB forum featuring Kevin Warsh, ISM manufacturing, and the June non‑farm payrolls report.

Lee then shifts to equity market themes, focusing on the recent move in semiconductor and memory stocks, including Micron Technology (MU), and how prior large pullbacks in the group have historically behaved over various time frames. He also notes the sharp single‑day drop in Apple (AAPL) following memory‑related cost pressures, and places this in the broader context of the "Mag Seven" megacap technology stocks. The discussion examines how these companies’ balance sheets have expanded with AI‑related capital spending, the idea of an "AI workforce" embedded in hyperscale infrastructure, and potential monetization via subscriptions. The full video (about 5 minutes) and detailed charts are available to subscribers.

In this Macro Minute video, Tom Lee reviews the May 2026 Core PCE inflation report and what the composition of that data implies for the broader inflation trend and interest rates. He walks through how categories such as financial services contributed to the May core PCE reading, compares it with real-time inflation gauges like Trueflation, and discusses how Treasury yields and oil prices reacted. The video also touches on the spread between the 2-year Treasury yield and the federal funds rate, and how recent market pricing has shifted the implied path of Federal Reserve policy. Upcoming macro data and events highlighted include University of Michigan one‑year inflation expectations, home prices, JOLTS, the ECB forum featuring Kevin Warsh, ISM manufacturing, and the June non‑farm payrolls report.

Lee then shifts to equity market themes, focusing on the recent move in semiconductor and memory stocks, including Micron Technology (MU), and how prior large pullbacks in the group have historically behaved over various time frames. He also notes the sharp single‑day drop in Apple (AAPL) following memory‑related cost pressures, and places this in the broader context of the "Mag Seven" megacap technology stocks. The discussion examines how these companies’ balance sheets have expanded with AI‑related capital spending, the idea of an "AI workforce" embedded in hyperscale infrastructure, and potential monetization via subscriptions. The full video (about 5 minutes) and detailed charts are available to subscribers.

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