Constructive Setup Holds Despite Today’s Perp-Driven Pullback

Discussed in today’s video:

  • Positioning has reset materially with oversold BTC readings, capitulation in IBIT and MSTR, negative funding and declining open interest, improving U.S. spot demand, and early signs of a turn in ETF and stablecoin flow trends.
  • Macro and liquidity conditions are shifting in a supportive direction as Fed net liquidity bottoms, high-yield spreads stabilize, the dollar weakens, and small-cap tech outperforms, creating a backdrop that historically favors BTC and strengthens the setup for ETH and alts if BTC can find buyers.
  • Today’s drawdown was not concerning. Selling was perp-driven and centered on Binance, while U.S. hours tracked equities cleanly, mitigating concerns about idiosyncratic sellers.
  • Core PCE came in as expected, sentiment is improving off the lows, and market pricing still anticipates a 25 bp cut next week.
Constructive Setup Holds Despite Today’s Perp-Driven Pullback

Tickers in this video: BTC -1.06% ETH -0.71% MSTR IBIT

Disclosures (show)