Thu, March 12, 2026 | 9:21PM ET

Is STRC Having a Larger Impact on Bitcoin Prices Than Investors Appreciate?

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Discussed in today’s video:

Today’s Chart Deck.
Bitcoin Showing Relative Strength: Crypto has held up well despite weakness across traditional risk assets. The S&P 500 fell roughly 1.5% today while BTC remained stable and is pushing back toward ~$71K. Since Sunday, the BTC /ES ratio has risen roughly 7%, highlighting notable resilience during a period of risk-off sentiment.
Historical Signal Skews Positive: We examined periods since 2016 where S&P futures declined more than 2% over ten days while the BTC/ES ratio rose more than 3%. There have been 41 such instances, and forward returns tend to be positive, particularly over 30-day horizons and beyond. That said, the distribution of outcomes is wide, meaning the signal is constructive but not decisive on its own.
Macro Conditions Continue to Deteriorate: The broader macro backdrop remains challenging. Crude oil is approaching $100, implied vol has risen, and both investment grade and high yield credit spreads have widened to new YTD highs. At the same time, rising yields and hawkish Fed rhetoric have led markets to largely price out rate cuts this year.
Defensive Positioning Building: Positioning in traditional markets has turned increasingly defensive. Customer put-delta exposure is near multi-year extremes, indicating investors are aggressively seeking downside protection. In crypto markets, funding rates have turned persistently negative and the 30-day moving average has moved below zero, a condition that has historically coincided with more durable market lows (although this is not an acute signal in and of itself).
Structural Demand From Strategy: Strategy continues to act as a significant source of Bitcoin demand through issuance of its common stock and its floating rate perpetual preferred security, STRC. Trading volume reached roughly $746M today for STRC, suggesting potentially meaningful ATM issuance activity that could translate into sizeable BTC purchases in addition to its normal common ATM issuance. This structural demand is perhaps what is being felt in the order books.
Bottom Line: Despite rising macro headwinds, Bitcoin’s relative strength is difficult to ignore. When you couple that with improving positioning dynamics and increasing structural demand from STRC buyers, the setup for the broader crypto complex favors near-term continuation. However, given the dual-sided risks in the market, for those currently uninvolved in the market, it’s probably best to wait for a confirmatory breakout before getting involved.

Is STRC Having a Larger Impact on Bitcoin Prices Than Investors Appreciate?

Tickers in this video: BTC 0.72% STRC

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