Fri, March 20, 2026 | 6:30PM ET

Webinar Survey Shows Neutral Sentiment/Risk-On Positioning, I Still Prefer Staying Nimble Despite Relative Strength

Note: As part of our transition from FS Insight to Fundstrat Direct, my notes will transition from sean.farrell@fsinsight.com to sean.farrell@fundstratdirect.com. Please add the new address to your contacts or safe sender list to ensure uninterrupted delivery. The research and insights you rely on will remain exactly the same — only our name and sender address are changing. If you have questions, please visit our FAQ here.

Discussed in today’s video:

Positioning vs Sentiment Disconnect: Webinar survey results show near-term sentiment is broadly neutral, with an even split between bullish and bearish views. However, positioning skews risk-on, with most investors moderately overweight and a meaningful share significantly overweight. This mismatch suggests elevated exposure despite low conviction, which can amplify moves in either direction.
Early Signs of De-Grossing Across Markets: Today’s price action suggests a shift from hedging toward actual de-grossing, with equities and gold both selling off. The unwind of crowded longs, particularly in gold, points to investors reducing exposure rather than simply adding protection. This is a notable shift from the positioning dynamics observed earlier in the year.
BTC Showing Relative Resilience: Bitcoin has begun to outperform equities at the margin again, and the BTC-gold ratio continues to move higher. This may reflect early signs of a relative value rotation from gold into BTC, though flow data has yet to confirm this.
Macro/Crypto Headwinds Remain: Geopolitical risks, particularly around potential escalation involving Iran, are contributing to market volatility. Yields are rising globally and market pricing has shifted away from cuts toward hikes on the margin. Within crypto, key demand drivers such as the Coinbase premium and Strategy-related flows are showing signs of fatigue.
Regulatory Progress Provides Long-Term Support: Reports of a tentative agreement on stablecoin yield language mark incremental progress toward advancing U.S. crypto market structure legislation. While details remain limited, this suggests movement toward resolving a key bottleneck between banks and the crypto industry. The development is a constructive signal for longer-term institutional adoption.
Bottom Line: Financial conditions are tightening and key crypto-specific demand drivers are fading. Although BTC’s relative strength is encouraging, the broader setup still appears fragile. Staying nimble and using strength to raise dry powder remains my preferred approach.

Webinar Survey Shows Neutral Sentiment/Risk-On Positioning, I Still Prefer Staying Nimble Despite Relative Strength

Tickers in this video: BTC -0.30%

Disclosures (show)

This research is for the clients of Fundstrat Direct only. Fundstrat Direct Subscription entitles the subscriber to 1 user, research cannot be shared or redistributed. For additional information, please contact your sales representative or Fundstrat Direct at fundstratdirect.com.

Analyst Certification (Reg AC)

Sean Farrell, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report, hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships. Neither I, nor a member of my household is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the issuer(s) or has another significant affiliation with the issuer(s) that is/are the subject of this research report. There is a possibility that we will from time to time have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Fundstrat Direct. At the time of publication of this report, Fundstrat Direct does not know of, or have reason to know of any material conflicts of interest.

General Disclosures

Fundstrat Direct is an independent research company and is not a registered investment advisor and is not acting as a broker dealer under any federal or state securities laws.

Fundstrat Direct is a member of IRC Securities’ Research Prime Services Platform. IRC Securities is a FINRA registered broker-dealer that is focused on supporting the independent research industry. Certain personnel of Fundstrat Direct (i.e. Research Analysts) are registered representatives of IRC Securities, a FINRA member firm registered as a broker-dealer with the Securities and Exchange Commission and certain state securities regulators. As registered representatives and independent contractors of IRC Securities, such personnel may receive commissions paid to or shared with IRC Securities for transactions placed by Fundstrat Direct clients directly with IRC Securities or with securities firms that may share commissions with IRC Securities in accordance with applicable SEC and FINRA requirements. IRC Securities does not distribute the research of Fundstrat Direct, which is available to select institutional clients that have engaged Fundstrat Direct.

As registered representatives of IRC Securities our analysts must follow IRC Securities’ Written Supervisory Procedures. Notable compliance policies include (1) prohibition of insider trading or the facilitation thereof, (2) maintaining client confidentiality, (3) archival of electronic communications, and (4) appropriate use of electronic communications, amongst other compliance related policies.

Fundstrat Direct does not have the same conflicts that traditional sell-side research organizations have because Fundstrat Direct (1) does not conduct any investment banking activities, and (2) does not manage any investment funds.

This communication is issued by Fundstrat Direct and/or affiliates of Fundstrat Direct. This is not a personal recommendation, nor an offer to buy or sell nor a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, investment products or other financial instruments or services. This material is distributed for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting or investment advice.
The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters. Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.
Intended for recipient only and not for further distribution without the consent of Fundstrat Direct.

This research is for the clients of Fundstrat Direct only. Additional information is available upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Fundstrat Direct does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to Fundstrat Direct and the analyst’s involvement (if any) with any of the subject companies of the research. All pricing is as of the market close for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, risk tolerance, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. Except in circumstances where Fundstrat Direct expressly agrees otherwise in writing, Fundstrat Direct is not acting as a municipal advisor and the opinions or views contained herein are not intended to be, and do not constitute, advice, including within the meaning of Section 15B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client website, fundstratdirect.com. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or made available to third-party aggregators or the media. Please contact your sales representative if you would like to receive any of our research publications.