Tue, March 31, 2026 | 8:53PM ET

Quantum Risk Moves Closer, ETH May Be Better Positioned

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Note: Apologies for the longer video today, but I do think it is worth watching as I walk through my thoughts on quantum.

Discussed in today’s video:

Quantum Breakthroughs: Two new papers meaningfully reduce the estimated resources required to break elliptic curve cryptography, the foundation of crypto security. Google’s research suggests ~20x fewer computing resources may be needed, while a separate paper indicates attacks could be feasible with as few as ~10,000 qubits versus prior estimates in the millions. Taken together, the threshold for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer appears more achievable than previously thought. While timelines remain uncertain, the direction of travel is clearly toward feasibility.
Risk Definition: The vulnerability is not to mining, but to the signature layer that secures transactions and wallet ownership. Attack vectors include “at-rest” attacks on exposed public keys and “in-flight” attacks targeting transactions in the mempool. The former is the more immediate concern, as attackers would have extended time to crack keys. This is a foundational risk, but importantly, it is a solvable one via post-quantum cryptography.
ETH vs BTC: Ethereum appears further along in addressing this issue, with a clear roadmap, active research, and stronger coordination via the Ethereum Foundation. Bitcoin’s current proposal (BIP-360) is a partial solution that requires user participation and does not fully address all attack vectors. Additionally, unresolved issues such as dormant wallets, including Satoshi’s coins, complicate implementation. Governance differences suggest ETH may be able to adapt more quickly.
Pricing & Sentiment: Awareness of quantum risk is rising but remains far from fully priced in. Some investors have adjusted allocations on the margin, but it is not yet a dominant driver of positioning. The impact is likely to be bidirectional: further breakthroughs could pressure sentiment, while credible progress on mitigation could act as a catalyst. This dynamic is likely to evolve alongside the headline flow.
Positioning Implications: No immediate changes to Core Strategy, as macro and liquidity dynamics remain the primary drivers near term. However, as the market begins to differentiate based on long-term resilience, quantum preparedness could become increasingly relevant. On a relative basis, this dynamic favors ETH over BTC. This is not an urgent trade, but a structural consideration that may gain importance over time.
Market Backdrop: Risk assets rallied on geopolitical optimism around a potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict, likely amplified by quarter-end rebalancing flows. However, underlying quality was mixed, with crypto flows remaining soft and a persistent Coinbase discount signaling limited spot demand. BTC also underperformed major equity indices. Crude remains elevated above $100, keeping geopolitical risk in play and limiting conviction in chasing the move.
STRC / Flow Watch: Strategy’s perpetual preferred (STRC) moved back above par, closing just over $100, with volumes picking up meaningfully after a quieter stretch. With the ex-dividend date approaching, this increases the likelihood of renewed issuance activity, which has historically served as a source of incremental BTC demand. While not a primary driver, this is a flow worth monitoring in the near term, particularly if issuance ramps alongside supportive price action.
Bottom Line: Today was encouraging to think we could see another bear market rally, but I am not rushing to chase this move. My base case remains that we see lower prices, and recommend keeping dry powder on hand.

Quantum Risk Moves Closer, ETH May Be Better Positioned

Tickers in this video: BTC 2.99% ETH 4.29% STRC

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