Thu, April 2, 2026 | 8:32PM ET

Crypto & Crude vs. Equities: Which Market Is Right?

Sean Farrell ^AC

Head of Digital Asset Strategy

Discussed in today’s video:

Positioning: No Longer “Key Risk” But Not A Contrarian Signal Either: Positioning has improved meaningfully over the past few weeks, reducing what was a key risk coming into the year. The latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey shows the largest increase in cash levels since COVID, alongside a notable decline in investor sentiment. However, absolute levels remain far from extremes, leaving positioning in “no man’s land.” This is constructive, but not yet a contrarian bullish signal.
Whipsaw: Markets continue to be driven by geopolitical developments, with President Donald Trump’s hawkish war update pushing crude higher while equities rallied on headlines suggesting potential future reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Cross-Asset Divergence: A notable divergence has emerged across asset classes. Crude is pricing near-term risk, equities are leaning into forward-looking optimism, while crypto has lagged both on an absolute and relative basis. This lack of confirmation from crypto is a cautionary signal, particularly given its typical high-beta nature. It remains unclear which market is “right,” but the divergence itself suggests elevated uncertainty.
Crypto Headwinds: In addition to macro pressures, crypto continues to face idiosyncratic supply overhang from miners selling. As miners increasingly pivot toward AI/HPC infrastructure, BTC sales have become a persistent source of supply. Bitfarms is the latest miner to pivot to AI, and is in the process of liquidating its BTC holdings. While not individually market-moving, the cumulative effect has weighed on price action over recent months. This dynamic likely remains a near-term headwind.
Bottom Line: Given the combination of improved but non-supportive positioning, macro uncertainty, and weak relative performance, a measured approach remains warranted. I am maintaining elevated cash levels (40%) and a bias toward BTC over altcoins, with selective exposure to higher-quality assets. I am not making any changes to portfolios at this time. Patience remains key in this environment.

Crypto & Crude vs. Equities: Which Market Is Right?

Tickers in this video: BTC 0.36% BITF

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