Crypto Markets Lean Optimistic on Potential War Resolution / STRC Bid, I Still Favor Patience

Sean Farrell

Discussed in today’s video:

  • Crypto Catch-Up: Crypto staged a modest rebound over the past 24–36 hours, with BTC briefly reclaiming $70k before settling near $69k and ETH modestly outperforming. This move appears to reflect a partial catch-up to equities, which began pricing in incremental optimism SoH traffic late last week.
  • Hormuz Optics: A key driver of improved risk sentiment is emerging evidence that shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz may be more resilient than widely reported. On-the-ground observations suggest “dark” ship traffic continues despite conflict-related disruptions, reinforcing a rate-of-change dynamic that markets tend to favor. That said, outcomes remain highly path-dependent on escalation risk and the stability of regional energy infrastructure.
  • Crude Still Elevated: Despite improved sentiment elsewhere, energy markets continue to signal stress, with Brent (~$110) and WTI (~$112) remaining elevated. This divergence highlights that while equities and now crypto are leaning into a more constructive narrative, commodities are still pricing in meaningful supply risk. The persistence of high oil prices remains a key variable for both inflation and risk appetite.
  • Strategy Bid: Part of crypto’s recent strength may be tied to renewed expectations around MicroStrategy’s ability to issue its stretch preferred (STRC) and fund incremental BTC purchases. The company raised ~$330mm last week after a pause in issuance, with STRC trading near par and maintaining stable demand. If issuance resumes alongside improving sentiment, this price-insensitive bid could provide near-term support to BTC.
  • Event Risk Ahead: Near-term direction remains highly contingent on upcoming catalysts. Trump has set a Tuesday deadline for Iran negotiations, with explicit escalation risk if no deal is reached. This is followed by a dense macro data slate later in the week, including core PCE, CPI, and growth data, which will provide the first read on post-conflict inflation dynamics.
  • Bottom Line: Markets are beginning to price a more constructive geopolitical path, supporting a near-term bounce in crypto. However, elevated crude, escalation risk, and a heavy macro data calendar argue for patience. I continue to maintain cash (~40%) in our model portfolios, with a bias toward BTC over altcoins, with selective exposure to higher-quality assets.
Crypto Markets Lean Optimistic on Potential War Resolution / STRC Bid, I Still Favor Patience

Tickers in this video: BTC 0.55% ETH 0.99% STRC

Disclosures (show)