Tue, April 7, 2026 | 9:14PM ET

TACO Tuesday, Eyeing Near-Term Continuation

Sean Farrell ^AC

Head of Digital Asset Strategy

Discussed in today’s video:

Geopolitics Ease, Risk Assets Respond: We received very constructive news post-market close, with the US and Iran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire. This appears to coincide with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing cargo ships and tankers to resume transit through a critical global trade route. Markets reacted quickly, with risk assets rallying as the geopolitical risk premium began to unwind.
Crude Collapse Signals Risk Premium Roll-Off: Front-month crude dropped sharply, falling from north of $115 to around $92 before stabilizing below the $100 level. This is a key signal, as energy had been the clearest expression of geopolitical stress. If crude continues to trend lower and the ceasefire holds, it reinforces the view that markets can look through near-term macro uncertainty and reprice toward a more constructive backdrop.
Macro Data Still a Near-Term Risk: This week brings a heavy slate of data, including PCE (Thursday), CPI (Friday), and growth indicators such as GDP, personal income, and sentiment. There is a real risk of stagflationary signals. That said, if commodities continue to roll over, the market may discount any “hot” prints. In that scenario, dips are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.
Crypto Responds with Broad-Based Strength: Crypto rallied strongly on the news, with BTC reversing earlier weakness and trading back above ~$71k at the time of writing. ETH and the broader complex also moved higher, driven in part by short covering and liquidations.
Incremental Tailwinds Building:
- STRC-related flows may reaccelerate, particularly ahead of the April 15 ex-dividend date.
- Morgan Stanley is launching a Bitcoin ETF tomorrow with competitive pricing (~14 bps), opening the door to a large pool of advisor-driven capital over time.
- ETH/BTC is attempting to break a long-term downtrend, which, if sustained, could support relative outperformance for ETH.
Bottom Line: I still view this as a bear market rally, but the combination of easing geopolitical risk, falling crude, and improving positioning creates a constructive near-term backdrop that I am not rushing to fade. I am not adding risk to model portfolios just yet, but may look to move some BTC further out on the risk curve. While macro data remains a swing factor this week, the balance of evidence suggests crypto can look through near-term noise and BTC can test the upper end of its range.

TACO Tuesday, Eyeing Near-Term Continuation

Tickers in this video: BTC -0.06% ETH 0.55% STRC

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