Fri, April 10, 2026 | 7:35PM ET

Data Still Points Higher Near-Term, HYPE Continues to lead

Sean Farrell ^AC

Head of Digital Asset Strategy

Discussed in today’s video:

Still a Bear Market Rally, But Not One to Fade Yet: I continue to view this as a bear market rally, but I am not rushing to fade it. Yesterday, we made minor adjustments to model portfolios, moving some BTC further out on the risk curve.
Financial Conditions Easing at the Margin: We have seen spreads tighten, VIX and MOVE roll over, and overall financial conditions improve. This has been a key tailwind for crypto. The relationship between BTC and crude has also shifted, further suggesting markets can look past immediate geopolitical risks and benefit from incrementally easing financial conditions.
Inflation Risk Pushed Out, Not Eliminated: Leading indicators still point to some upward pressure on inflation, largely driven by supply-side factors. However, the market appears comfortable treating this as transitory. Today’s CPI print came in cooler than expected, reinforcing the idea that inflation is not an immediate constraint and allowing risk assets to grind higher in the near term.
Positioning and Flows Support Further Upside: BTC funding rates remain negative, option skew still shows puts as expensive relative to calls, and sentiment is subdued. At the same time, incremental flows, particularly from Strategy-related activity into BTC, can have an outsized impact given low spot volumes. With exchange volumes near cycle lows, marginal buyers matter more.
HYPE Continues to Lead on Fundamentals and Price: Hyperliquid remains a standout performer, up ~70% YTD and ~50% since the start of the war. HIP-3 volumes exceeded $60B in March and are on pace to surpass $70B in April. The combination of strong fundamentals and price momentum continues to support leaning into strength.
Portfolio Positioning: I made minor adjustments, trimming some BTC and reallocating toward ETH and HYPE. Crypto equities were adjusted similarly to reflect these shifts.
Bottom Line: The setup remains constructive in the near term. Easing financial conditions, improving positioning, and incremental flows create a favorable backdrop for further upside. That said, my base case remains that this is a bear market rally, and I expect to de-risk at higher levels. For now, I am leaning in tactically while maintaining dry powder.

Data Still Points Higher Near-Term, HYPE Continues to lead

Tickers in this video: BTC 2.99% ETH 4.29% HYPE

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