Strong Rebound, STRC Flows Helping Drive Near-Term Upside

Discussed in today’s video:

  • Geopolitics Still Fluid, But Risk Assets Continue to Lean Constructive: Price action was notably weak over the weekend following reports that US-Iran talks had stalled, alongside news of a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This morning, reports surfaced that Iran is considering abandoning uranium enrichment as a condition for ending the conflict. Combined with today’s reversal, this suggests the blockade may be exerting pressure and moving both sides toward an off-ramp. While the situation remains fluid, markets continue to price incremental progress.
  • STRC Flows Remain a Key Tailwind: Strategy raised just over $1B last week via STRC issuance to purchase BTC, according to today’s 8-K. Trading volumes remain elevated, with nearly $1.2B traded today. Assuming a large portion reflects new issuance, this implies another ~$850–950M of incremental demand for BTC in the near term. With the April 15th ex-dividend date approaching, this dynamic likely persists over the next 24–48 hours.
  • Thin Liquidity Amplifying Flows: Spot participation remains extremely light, with aggregate exchange volumes near cycle lows. As a result, incremental price-insensitive flows, particularly from Strategy-related activity, are having an outsized impact on price. This is also reflected in a sharp pickup in the Coinbase premium, now at its strongest levels since mid-2025.
  • HYPE Continues to Dominate: Hyperliquid remains the standout performer. The HYPE/BTC ratio made a new intraday high, and its share of total perp volume relative to centralized exchanges continues to climb, now above 7% on a 30-day moving average basis. Expansion into non-crypto markets is helping reduce cyclicality and support sustained momentum. Bitwise recently amended its Hyperliquid ETF filing and added a ticker (BHYP), which often precedes launch. If an ETF comes to market this week, it could act as a near-term “sell-the-news” catalyst for more tactical traders.
  • Bottom Line: While my base case remains that this is a bear market rally, I am not rushing to fade it. Strong flows, improving price action, and supportive positioning suggest additional near-term upside.
Strong Rebound, STRC Flows Helping Drive Near-Term Upside

Tickers in this video: BTC 2.99% HYPE 1.56% STRC BHYP

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