Tue, April 14, 2026 | 8:45PM ET

Bear Market Rally Over?

Sean Farrell ^AC

Head of Digital Asset Strategy

Discussed in today’s video:

Large STRC Issuance Fails to Lift BTC: Strategy likely deployed significant capital into BTC today via STRC issuance. Volumes reached ~$1.5B, the highest on record, implying roughly $1.1–1.3B of incremental demand. Despite this, BTC finished lower on the day, retracing from an early move higher and trading back toward ~$74k. The inability to hold gains in the face of this magnitude of flows suggests meaningful supply above ~$75k–$76k.
Ex-Dividend Dynamics a Near-Term Headwind: With the April 15th ex-dividend date approaching, it is possible that some demand was pulled forward. Historically, BTC performance in the ~14 days following prior STRC ex-dividend dates has been weak (-4.3%, -6.5%, -11.6%), suggesting a potential air pocket once this flow subsides.
Near-Term Risk/Reward Shifting Negative: While I had been looking for continuation toward ~$80k, today’s price action reduces the likelihood of a clean breakout in the immediate term and shifts the near-term risk/reward in a negative direction.
SEC Rule Change a Tailwind for Retail Brokerage Activity: The SEC announced the removal of pattern day trading restrictions for smaller accounts, eliminating the prior four-trades-in-five-days limit for accounts under $25k. This change should increase trading activity among retail investors and is a clear positive for platforms with smaller average account sizes.
HOOD as a Beneficiary: Given its significantly lower average account size relative to incumbents, Robinhood stands to benefit disproportionately from increased retail trading activity. The stock reacted positively, up ~10% on the day and an additional ~5% after hours.
Bottom Line: As has been my base case, this remains a bear market rally. While I was optimistic of continuation higher through this week, today’s absorption of STRC flows was certainly disconcerting for bulls near-term.

Tickers in this video: BTC 0.30% STRC HOOD

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