Thu, April 23, 2026 | 10:05PM ET

BTC Holding Firm Beyond STRC Window, Strategy ATM Extending the Rally

• Choppy Session, BTC Continues to Outperform: It was another choppy day across the crypto complex, but BTC held in well, finishing slightly higher while ETH and SOL saw modest drawdowns. Pronounced weakness in ETH/BTC and SOL/BTC reinforces that this remains a BTC-led, spot-driven rally.

• BTC Defying Typical Post-STRC Pattern: BTC has extended well beyond the typical post-ex-dividend air pocket observed in prior STRC cycles. We are now at T+8 and still holding gains, whereas prior episodes saw weakness emerge within 1–3 days. This suggests incremental demand beyond STRC-related flows is supporting price action.

• Strategy Common ATM Likely Driving Incremental Demand: The persistence of BTC strength is likely being supported by Strategy tapping its common stock ATM. With MSTR still trading around ~1.25x mNAV, the company has room to raise capital. Based on volume and price action, it is plausible that ~$1B of incremental BTC demand has been generated this week via common issuance, even accounting for some proceeds being allocated toward USD reserves.

• CB Premium Remains Elevated: Coinbase premium remains positive, though rolling over slightly, and overall spot and derivatives volumes remain muted. In this environment, marginal institutional flows, particularly from Strategy, can have an outsized impact on price due to thin liquidity conditions.

• Miners Leading on AI Tailwinds, Not BTC Beta: Crypto-linked equities, particularly miners, have been standout performers since the late-March lows, with several names up 50%+. Rising GPU rental prices, leadership in the broader AI complex, and strong earnings from AI-related names suggest miners are still a cohort of stocks you want to lean into on any dips.

• Bottom Line: BTC is holding up better than expected post-STRC ex-dividend date, with Strategy’s common ATM likely extending the rally. In the immediate term, it is difficult to fade this strength. That said, given the broader liquidity backdrop and the potential for a demand-side air pocket to emerge, I still view this as a bear market rally. Recall that BTC saw rallies of ~46% and ~43% during the last cycle (current = ~30%), reinforcing the importance of maintaining flexibility (cash) in portfolios.

Tickers in this video: BTC -0.12% ETH -0.32% SOL -0.23% STRC MSTR

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