Tue, May 5, 2026 | 4:36PM ET

Clarity Momentum Builds, BTC Breaks Out Without Strategy, Miners Continue to Lead

Clarity Act Sees Meaningful Progress: Regulatory momentum continues to build, with Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks outlining a compromise on stablecoin yield language. The framework prohibits rewards that resemble deposit interest but allows alternative incentive structures, addressing banking sector concerns while preserving crypto utility. While not the industry’s optimal outcome, it represents a tangible step forward and signals that the Senate is prepared to move ahead. Prediction markets have responded accordingly, with implied odds of passage rising to ~65%. Timing remains critical, with a May window likely necessary for passage.

BTC Breaking Out Without Strategy Flows: BTC continues to grind higher, now trading above ~$81k, and importantly, this move has occurred without support from Strategy purchases. This is a notable shift in market structure, suggesting that spot demand is broadening beyond a single marginal buyer.

Positioning Remains Constructive: Despite the strength in price, positioning does not appear stretched. Open interest has been rising, but funding rates have remained mixed, oscillating between negative and positive. This suggests that the rally is not being driven by excessive leverage and that there is still room for positioning to expand.

STRC Dynamics Still in Focus: With the next STRC ex-dividend date approaching (May 15th), there is potential for renewed positioning into issuance. Additionally, the growing use of STRC as collateral backing stablecoins (e.g., APXUSD, USDAT) introduces a new source of structural demand, albeit still small (~2% of notional outstanding). This remains an important dynamic to monitor for forward-looking flows.

200-Day Moving Average a Potential Test: From a technical perspective, BTC is approaching its 200-day moving average, which has historically acted as resistance in prior bear markets. While this cycle has differed in many respects, it is still a level that systematic strategies and CTAs are likely monitoring, and could represent a near-term inflection point.

Options Market Offering Cheap Convexity: Implied volatility remains near historical lows across tenors ( ~38% for 1-month), suggesting relatively inexpensive optionality. For investors looking to express directional views without committing spot capital, this presents an opportunity to gain convex exposure.

Miners Continue to Lead on AI Tailwinds: The mining cohort remains a standout, with names like CIFR continuing to rally on AI-related developments. CIFR’s latest data center lease with an investment-grade hyperscaler and new credit facility underscores the ongoing transition toward compute infrastructure. More broadly, correlations between miners and semiconductors continue to rise, reinforcing their role as AI capex beneficiaries rather than pure BTC proxies.

Bottom Line: There is certainly more good than bad in the data right now. Regulatory momentum is improving, BTC is breaking out without reliance on Strategy flows, and positioning remains far from stretched. While technical resistance and near-term event risk warrant some caution, the balance of evidence favors continuation here, with miners and AI-linked plays remaining key beneficiaries.

Tickers in this video: BTC 0.18% STRC CIFR

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