Some Thoughts on the 4-Year Cycle, Encouraging Moves in Rate Vol and Credit Spreads Today

One year after the bull market peak, the four-year cycle is worth revisiting. I think its fundamental basis has weakened materially, as halvings now have a much smaller impact on Bitcoin’s supply dynamics, but it still matters as a positioning variable because a cohort of capital trades around it. If anything, that cohort should now be starting to re-enter as we move beyond the traditional bear-market window. This...

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