A Fed "pause" in spring is pregnant pause and a pretext for a substantial easing of financial conditions. Supports why stocks could rise 20%-25% in 2023.

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More than a few of our clients have told us that "falling inflation" is consensus and therefore priced into equities and these same clients tend to lean bearish as they view the next chapter in the market narrative as "falling EPS due to Fed hikes."

But I don't agree that falling inflation is consensus. There are multiple reasons discussed below, but let me start with my takea...

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