Prediction markets see higher oil thru June = longer conflict. But we still see March as "up month"

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The US attack on Iran is now in its 10th day and since then, the S&P 500 is down -1.4%. To us, the conflict is likely longer than consensus expectations (which is a short war) and perhaps the best leading indicator is prediction markets, which see a 76% probability of $100 oil in June. In other words, that the conflict likely lasts through the next 3 months.

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