Raise S&P 500 target to 8,000 vs 7,700 prior - June 2026 Top Large Cap and SMID Cap Core Stock Ideas Market Update

Video: We are giving a mid-year update and raising our year-end target for S&P 500 to 8,000 from 7,700.  This is mainly due to higher EPS for 2027, and we have a lower target P/E.

Please click here to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:48).

________________________________________________

• Updating our Top 5 and Bottom 5 Large-cap
• Updating our Top 5 and Bottom 5 SMID-cap Core Stock Ideas
• Chartbook linked below

Please join us at 2pm ET on 6/25 for our Macro Update & Top Stock Ideas Webinar

Register HERE.

To download the slide deck for our Market Update Webinar, please click HERE.

________________________________________________

DECEMBER 2025: In December 2025, our 2026 Outlook:

• Year-end 2026 S&P 500 Target 7,700

• Since 1928, 12 global instances of “3 years >20%” and average implied 2026 gain is 12%.

• Major drivers of earnings and GDP in 2026:
– AI and energy infrastructure
– Wall Street moving onto blockchain
– On-shoring

• Favorite sectors:
– Technology, Financials, Industrials, Small-caps, Energy/Basic Materials

JUNE 2026: 2026 Outlook. Year-end Strong but expect turbulence:

• P/E still expanding

• Year-end 2026 S&P 500 Target now 8,000 up from 7,700

• Major drivers of earnings and GDP in 2026:
– AI and energy infrastructure
– Wall Street moving onto blockchain
– On-shoring

• Expect the market to face 3 tests later this year:
– New Fed gets tested
– The “unlock” of IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic
– Petroleum product shortages due to Iran war

• Favorite sectors:
– Technology, Financials, Industrials, Small-caps, Energy/Basic Materials

________________________________________________
Large-cap: Top 5 and Bottom 5 Core List‎‎‎ Stock Ideas

We are introducing our “Top 5” (most timely) and “Bottom 5” Large-cap core stock ideas.

• The rationale is that many clients ask us to narrow our recommendations down to a list of “fresh money” ideas.
• We established a criteria of 4 factors to narrow the list to tactical buys:
  – fundamentals using DQM model managed by “tireless Ken”
  – IBD momentum rating
  – technical strength measured by Price >20 DMA, 20 DMA vs 200 DMA and combos
  – Mark Newton’s judgement on technical outlook

• Our “Top 5” core stock ideas for June 2026:
  – Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) <- carry over
  – Arista Networks (ANET) <- carry over
  – Caterpillar Inc (CAT)
  – Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) <- carry over
  – Quanta Services Inc. (PWR) <- carry over
• The “Bottom 5” stock ideas (to avoid) are:
  – Echostar Corp. (ECHO) <- carry over
  – Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC)
  – Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)
  – MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR)
  – Texas Pacific Land Corp. (TPL) <- carry over

SMID-cap: Top 5 and Bottom 5 Core List‎‎‎ Stock Ideas

Last December, we maintained Small-caps as one of our top recommendations in our 2026 year-ahead outlook. We created our SMID Core List as many of our clients asked us for our Top SMID-cap stock picks.

• We believe the SMID Core stocks could benefit from the multiple themes and secular tailwinds.
• From the SMID Core List, we employed the same framework mentioned above to identify the 5 most timely ideas and 5 least timely ideas within the SMID Core List.

• We have 5 tactical buys aka our “Top 5”:
  – Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) <- carry over
  – Sterling Infrastructure Inc. (STRL) <- carry over
  – Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI)
  – Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI)
  – IES Holdings Inc. (IESC) <- carry over
• The “Bottom 5” SMID Core stocks are:
  – Echostar Corp. (ECHO) <- carry over
  – Weatherford International (WFRD)
  – AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV)
  – Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU) <- carry over
  – Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) <- carry over

Join our live webinar on 6/25 for commentary on the Top 5 and Bottom 5 Large-Cap and SMID-Cap Core Stock Ideas.

Part I: 47 Large-cap Core Ideas: Updated list is below

Large-Cap Core Stock Ideas are large-cap stocks that appear in multiple of our investment strategies.

• Consider these the stocks our top stock picks and thus, the higher quality ideas.

The Current Large-cap Core List as of 5/21/2026 is as follows:

Communication Services: GOOGL, META, NFLX, ECHO
Consumer Discretionary: AMZN, TJX, TSLA
Consumer Staples: COST, MNST, PM, WMT
Energy: OKE, TPL
Financials: AXP, BNY, GS, HOOD, JPM, PNC
Health Care: LLY, MRK, UNH
Industrials: CAT, DE, ETN, GE, GEV, NOC, PWR, TT, UNP
Information Technology: AAPL, AMD, ANET, AVGO, CDNS, KLAC, MSFT, MSTR, NOW, NVDA, ORCL, PLTR
Materials: APD, CF, PKG
Utilities: VST

Part II: 64 SMID Core Ideas: Updated list is below

SMID Core Ideas are small and mid-cap stocks that appear in multiple of our investment strategies.

• We believe SMID Core List could benefit from the multiple themes and secular tailwinds.

The Current SMID Core List as of 5/27/2026 is as follows:

Communication Services: RDDT, ECHO, TIGO
Consumer Discretionary: DKS, DPZ, SGI, SN
Consumer Staples: BG, ELF
Energy: CCJ, DINO, DTM, UUUU, WFRD
Financials: ALLY, EWBC, GLXY, SOFI, WAL
Health Care: EXEL, HALO, NBIX, NTRA, UTHR
Industrials: AVAV, BE, BWXT, CRS, CW, DY, ENS, FIX, HII, IESC, KTOS, MLI, MOD, NXT, QXO, RKLB, STRL, VMI, WTS
Information Technology: CRDO, FN, FSLR, IONQ, LSCC, LITE, MDB, NBIS, ON, P, PATH, RIOT, RMBS, SANM, TMI, ZETA, ZM
Materials: ALB, MP, RGLD

Key Incoming Data June:

• 6/1 9:45 AM ET: May F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 6/1 10:00 AM ET: May ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 6/2 10:00 AM ET: Apr JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 6/3 9:45 AM ET: May F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 6/3 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Durable Goods Orders Tame
• 6/3 10:00 AM ET: May ISM Services PMI Tame
• 6/3 2:00 PM ET: Fed Releases Beige Book Mixed
• 6/4 8:30 AM ET: 1Q F Unit Labor Costs Tame
• 6/4 8:30 AM ET: 1Q F Non-Farm Productivity Tame
• 6/5 8:30 AM ET: May Non-Farm Payrolls Hot
• 6/8 11:00 AM ET: May NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp Tame
• 6/9 6:00 AM ET: May Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
• 6/9 8:30 AM ET: Apr Trade Balance Tame
• 6/9 10:00 AM ET: May Existing Home Sales Tame
• 6/10 8:30 AM ET: May CPI Tame
• 6/11 8:30 AM ET: May PPI Mixed
• 6/12 10:00 AM ET: Jun P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Mixed
• 6/15 8:30 AM ET: Jun Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 6/15 10:00 AM ET: Jun NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 6/17 8:30 AM ET: May Retail Sales Data Tame
• 6/17 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC Decision Mixed
• 6/18 8:30 AM ET: Jun Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
• 6/18 4:00 PM ET: Apr Net TIC Flows Tame
• 6/23 9:45 AM ET: Jun P S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 6/23 9:45 AM ET: Jun P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 6/23 10:00 AM ET: Jun Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 6/24 10:00 AM ET: May New Home Sales Tame
• 6/25 8:30 AM ET: 1Q T GDP
• 6/25 8:30 AM ET: May P Durable Goods Orders
• 6/25 8:30 AM ET: May PCE Deflator
• 6/25 8:30 AM ET: May Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
• 6/25 11:00 AM ET: Jun Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
• 6/26 10:00 AM ET: Jun F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
• 6/29 10:30 AM ET: Jun Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
• 6/30 9:00 AM ET: Apr S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA
• 6/30 10:00 AM ET: May JOLTS Job Openings
• 6/30 10:00 AM ET: Jun Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2026:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023:

______________________________
PS: If you are enjoying our service and its evidence-based approach, please leave us a positive 5-star review on Google reviews —> Click here.