Markets still have excessive 'inflation derangement syndrome,' and July jobs and July CPI should quell some fears. We see S&P 500 reaching 7,900-8,000 by end of month

In this Macro Minute video, Tom Lee’s S&P 500 outlook for August 2026 is framed around what he calls a new wave of “inflation derangement syndrome” and how upcoming July labor and inflation data could influence that narrative. Lee reviews the history of prior market “derangement” episodes around the dot-com bust and the post–Great Financial Crisis period, and then links the current focus on inflation to the Federal Reserve’s policy debate, including market-implied odds for a potential September rate move. He walks through expectations for the July non-farm payrolls report, wage growth, and the July Consumer Price Index (CPI), as well as how alternative inflation gauges compare with official data.

The video also touches on how this macro backdrop intersects with positioning in major equity groups and digital assets, including the so‑called “Mag 7” mega-cap technology cohort, software stocks, and crypto such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Lee highlights a broader 2026 three-phase market framework he is using, and references Fundstrat’s updated lists of large-cap and SMID Core Ideas across sectors like technology, industrials, financials, energy, and materials. The report and video include the full analysis, data calendar for key August 2026 releases (CPI, PPI, PCE, confidence, PMIs and more), charts, and Lee’s detailed interpretation of what these indicators could mean for the S&P 500 and sector leadership.

In this Macro Minute video, Tom Lee’s S&P 500 outlook for August 2026 is framed around what he calls a new wave of “inflation derangement syndrome” and how upcoming July labor and inflation data could influence that narrative. Lee reviews the history of prior market “derangement” episodes around the dot-com bust and the post–Great Financial Crisis period, and then links the current focus on inflation to the Federal Reserve’s policy debate, including market-implied odds for a potential September rate move. He walks through expectations for the July non-farm payrolls report, wage growth, and the July Consumer Price Index (CPI), as well as how alternative inflation gauges compare with official data.

The video also touches on how this macro backdrop intersects with positioning in major equity groups and digital assets, including the so‑called “Mag 7” mega-cap technology cohort, software stocks, and crypto such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Lee highlights a broader 2026 three-phase market framework he is using, and references Fundstrat’s updated lists of large-cap and SMID Core Ideas across sectors like technology, industrials, financials, energy, and materials. The report and video include the full analysis, data calendar for key August 2026 releases (CPI, PPI, PCE, confidence, PMIs and more), charts, and Lee’s detailed interpretation of what these indicators could mean for the S&P 500 and sector leadership.

checkout-thomas-lee image
checkout-logo image

Become a Member To Access Fundstrat Research

Fundstrat Direct gives individual investors access to Tom Lee's research, previously only available to banks and hedge funds.

Annual plans

Fundstrat AI is included with every annual plan.
Macro + Fundstrat AI
Evidence-based market intelligence from our team of renowned analysts — with Fundstrat AI included.
Save 20%
$274 $219/mo · $2,630 billed annually
You save $658/yr ($55/mo)
Includes $20 of AI tokens every month. Usage beyond that is billable.
Start 30-Day Free Trial
  • ✓

    Fundstrat AI included

  • ✓ Near-daily macro strategy from Tom Lee & team
  • ✓ Real-time macro market alerts
  • ✓ Curated stock lists and sector allocation tools
  • ✓ Live webinars (macro)
  • ✓ Fundstrat AI Desk — ask the markets anything
  • ✓ AI charts & stock scoring benchmarked against Mark Newton's model
Crypto + Fundstrat AI
Clear-cut insights into the cryptocurrency market, grounded in Fundstrat's macro framework — with Fundstrat AI included.
Save 20%
$139 $111/mo · $1,334 billed annually
You save $334/yr ($28/mo)
Includes $20 of AI tokens every month. Usage beyond that is billable.
Start 30-Day Free Trial
  • ✓

    Fundstrat AI included

  • ✓ Near-daily crypto strategy from Fundstrat team
  • ✓ Real-time crypto market alerts
  • ✓ Curated crypto picks and crypto equities lists
  • ✓ Live webinars (crypto)
  • ✓ Fundstrat AI Desk — ask the markets anything
  • ✓ AI charts, chartbooks & automated client communications

Monthly plans

Macro + Fundstrat AI
Everything in Macro, plus Fundstrat AI — instant insights on your portfolios and stocks, charts on command, and stock scoring benchmarked against Mark Newton's model.
$274/mo
Includes $20 of AI tokens every month. Usage beyond that is billable.
Start 30-Day Free Trial
  • ✓ Everything in Macro
  • ✓ AI insights on your portfolios, stocks & investment activity
  • ✓ Stock scoring benchmarked against Mark Newton's model
  • ✓ Fundstrat AI Desk — ask the markets anything
  • ✓ AI charts, chartbooks & automated client communications
Macro
Evidence-based market intelligence from our team of renowned analysts.
$249/mo
Start 30-Day Free Trial
  • ✓ Near-daily macro strategy from Tom Lee & team
  • ✓ Real-time macro market alerts
  • ✓ Curated stock lists and sector allocation tools
  • ✓ Live webinars (macro)
Crypto + Fundstrat AI
Everything in Crypto, plus Fundstrat AI — instant insights on your portfolios and holdings, charts on command, and digital-asset scoring benchmarked against our models.
$139/mo
Includes $20 of AI tokens every month. Usage beyond that is billable.
Start 30-Day Free Trial
  • ✓ Everything in Crypto
  • ✓ AI insights on your portfolios, holdings & investment activity
  • ✓ Fundstrat AI Desk — ask the markets anything
  • ✓ AI charts, chartbooks & automated client communications
Crypto
Clear-cut insights into the cryptocurrency market, grounded in Fundstrat's macro framework.
$119/mo
Start 30-Day Free Trial
  • ✓ Near-daily crypto strategy from Fundstrat team
  • ✓ Real-time crypto market alerts
  • ✓ Curated crypto picks and crypto equities lists
  • ✓ Live webinars (crypto)

Why Join Fundstrat Direct?

Fundstrat Direct helps you invest confidently with the same research banks and hedge funds use to navigate the market.

Daily Strategy Icon

Daily Strategy from Tom Lee & Team

Stay ahead of consensus with daily updates on key developments & catalysts and opportunities ahead.

Real-Time Market Alerts Icon

Real-Time Market Alerts

Analysis on market-moving events and actionable opportunities delivered instantly from us to you.

Curated Stock Lists Icon

Curated Stock Lists

Choose the portfolio that best suits your investment style, preferred asset class, and time horizon.

Monthly Market Update & Top Ideas Webinar Icon

Monthly Market Update & Top Ideas Webinar

Attend engaging webinars with Tom & team featuring our top ideas and near-term market outlook.

Daily Technical Strategy Icon

Daily Technical Strategy

Receive tactical opportunities, actionable signals, and fundamental analysis from our proven research team.

Live Analysis on Your Holdings Icon

Live Analysis on Your Holdings

A monthly webinar featuring live analysis on member-submitted stocks and questions.

More from the author

Events

Trending tickers in our research