Video: Macro Minute: Heading into Sep FOMC rate decision, we see stocks rising with +25bp hike and a bigger rally if Fed holds

In this Macro Minute video on the stock market outlook this week, Tom Lee, CFA, frames how investors might think about the September 2026 FOMC rate decision in the wake of the recent August CPI report and the market’s reaction to that data. He walks through how a potential 25bp move or a decision to hold rates would intersect with economist forecasts, bond market pricing, and prediction markets, and how those expectations set up market risk around the Fed announcement on Wednesday afternoon.

Lee also highlights Goldman Sachs research on temporary factors within core PCE inflation, discussing components such as portfolio effects from equity markets, accessories and memory/flash pricing, energy impacts linked to geopolitical events, and tariffs. He touches on debates over the Fed’s independence, political biases in inflation views, and the concept of “inflation derangement syndrome.” The video then shifts to positioning themes, including recent moves in AI-related semiconductor and memory stocks, downstream AI beneficiaries such as the “Mag Seven” and software, and the role of crypto assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), along with select crypto‑linked equities. The full 5‑minute video and accompanying materials provide his complete framework and charts.

Finish reading this report for free

Enter your email and we'll send the paywall-free report directly to your inbox

Articles Read: 0/2

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

In addition to your unlocked report, you will receive our weekly market newsletter Fundstrat Snapshot, as well as occasional updates and offers from Fundstrat Direct. You can unsubscribe at any time.

Get unlimited access to Tom Lee's Fundstrat research Subscribe
Already a member? Log in

More from the author

Events

Trending tickers in our research