Video: Macro Minute: Despite higher Oct core CPI, to us, a Fed hike in Dec is arguably still a mistake, given higher rates = more housing shortage = inflationary.

In this Macro Minute video, Tom Lee reviews the October 2026 CPI report and discusses what the hotter core CPI print and recent comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller could mean for the December Fed meeting. He walks through how specific CPI components such as airlines, shelter, recreational commodities, and apparel have contributed to excess inflation, and highlights the role of prior supply shocks, tariffs, and housing dynamics in these categories.

Lee then examines two channels through which Federal Reserve rate hikes may interact with inflation: higher interest income on liquid assets and tighter housing supply. He uses charts on interest income receipts, real construction spending, and housing starts to frame these relationships. The video also notes upcoming October data releases, including home sales and core PPI, ongoing Fed communication, and selected earnings commentary such as CoreWeave. Lee closes with observations on volatility indicators like the VIX term structure, Nasdaq moves around the election period, and commodity trading advisor positioning. The full analysis, supporting charts, and his detailed interpretation are available in the video for subscribers.

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