Markets Smell Fear But 60% Probability of 'V'-Shaped Bounce

The trading action in recent days certainly shows that the smell of fear is in the air. The bears won last week’s battle, even as they’ve been losing the war for years.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index had one of its worst few consecutive days ever, declining a stunning 12.8% in seven days. Such decline velocity was last seen in 2008.Cue the panic. The mounting hysteria around COVID-19, and a growing consensus that “nothing is safe” is only amplifying the view that equities will...

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