President Trump has broken with precedent on numerous fronts during his presidency – both terms. One major precedent involves having the government take ownership stakes in private sector companies.
Maximizing returns wasn’t the priority. Sovereign security was the primary motivator, and it was thought that taking an ownership stake would help in three important ways:
- Providing a funding boost in those aspects of the company’s efforts that align with U.S. security interests.
- Attain a measure of control over the company’s operations, particularly decisions about transferring control of key assets to non-U.S. entities.
- Secure access to strategic products and services for government agencies, both civilian and military.
To the extent that the U.S. has made security and strategic gains as a result, it would be difficult to quantify what those are worth in any widely accepted way. Nevertheless, it’s still nice for those of us who are U.S. taxpayers to see how what we will unofficially describe as the U.S. strategic portfolio is doing from a financial perspective.
We will list the investment stakes in chronological order.
MP Materials Corp. MP 9.29%
Acquisition date: July 10, 2025
The Department of Defense made a $400 million investment in MP Materials, for which it acquired 10-year warrants and a block of convertible preferred stock. If both were exercised, this would amount to a 15% diluted equity stake in the company.
In addition to the funds raised, MP Materials received a $150 million low-interest loan to improve its rare-earth processing facilities at Mountain Pass in California and a federal purchase guarantee (see below) that enabled a low-cost $1 billion line of credit from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to support the construction of a Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and magnet-manufacturing campus in Texas – known as the “10X” facility.
Alongside this investment, the U.S. gained the right to participate in all strategic planning sessions. It also secured veto rights and right of first refusal should MP Materials ever decide to sell its 10X magnet facility to a non-U.S. entity. However, as a holder of preferred shares and warrants, the government does not have the voting rights that typically accompany ownership of common stock.
Perhaps most importantly for both parties, MP Materials secured a 10-year commitment from the DoD to purchase the offtake of MP Materials’ Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) oxide at a floor price of $110/kg, providing the company with protection from downside volatility caused by, for example, possible attempts by China to flood the market, drive down prices, and make continued operations by non-Chinese mining companies economically unfeasible. The deal came with fast-tracked regulatory approvals for the Northlake, Texas facility that cut the bureaucratic process by an estimated 18 months.
On May 7, 2026, MP Materials reported that its 2025 NdPr output had more than doubled compared to 2024, working with the aforementioned federal price floor to drive quarterly revenue growth of 49.1% YoY.
As of May 7, based on the market-cap value of a 15% stake in the company ($1.84 billion), the government’s unrealized return was 126.6%. A huge chunk of those gains took place on Day 1 after the investment was announced, when the stock price rose 50%. This was followed shortly after by a followup deal in which Apple agreed to a $500 million partnership (including a $200 million prepayment), providing used magnets and scrap from end-of-life devices and then buying recycled magnets from MP Materials.
Intel Corporation INTC -0.38%
Acquisition date: Aug. 22, 2025
In 2022, President Biden sought to extend support to Intel through the CHIPS Act of 2022. Although President Trump agreed with Biden on the strategic importance of Intel, he changed the terms of the federal government’s relationship to an $11.1 billion investment in the semiconductor OG – 433,323,000 common shares, at the time a 9.9% stake in the company. The deal was funded by previously awarded CHIPS Act grants (some of which had already been disbursed during the Biden administration) as well as a previously awarded $3.2 billion Secure Enclave payment originally focused on acquiring a source of secure, military-grade chips.
Importantly given Intel’s status as the only U.S.-owned leading-edge chip fabricator, the U.S. secured a say in any attempt by the company to sell ownership in its foundry operations. Specifically, the U.S. secured warrants to purchase another 5% stake at $20.00/share, which become exercisable only if Intel attempts to sell more than 49% of its U.S. foundry manufacturing arm within the next five years. (This was not included in our performance calculations.)
As with MP Materials, Intel gained invaluable assistance with bureaucratic streamlining, with a “National Security Priority” designation helping to speed construction of fabrication facilities in Ohio and Arizona. Following the government’s lead, Nvidia made a $5 billion strategic investment in Intel as part of a new partnership with infrastructure just a few weeks later.
Since 2026 began, Intel has notched impressive gains on reports of improved foundry performance, revenue growth, and news reports of partnerships and deals with the likes of Google, SpaceX’s Terafab project and, of course, surging AI CPU demand. On May 5, 2026, Bloomberg News reported that Apple is considering working with Intel (and Samsung) to have them make processors for Apple devices, a move away from its years depending on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC).
Financially, Intel represents the largest and most successful of the federal government’s Trump 2.0 investments, with returns (based on the $11.1 billion cost-basis valuation) to date at roughly 368.5%.
Trilogy Metals Inc. TMQ 4.68%
Acquisition date: Oct. 6, 2025
The Department of Defense on Oct. 6, 2025 announced plans to acquire an aggregate 10% equity stake in Trilogy Metals, investing $35.6 million to acquire 16,431,140 shares – putting the per-share price at $2.17. This included purchases of both newly issued shares from Trilogy and pre-existing shares from South32, a Trilogy joint venture partner.
The government’s interest came about through Trilogy’s Ambler Mining operations in Alaska, which was viewed as key to helping to secure a domestic source for critical metals like copper, cobalt, and zinc (as well as lead, gold, and silver). Note that we are including this in our calculations even though the deal has yet to formally close. Closing has been delayed in part because Trilogy is a Canadian company, with a deadline for closing set for May 31.
Aside from the funding itself, Trilogy Metals would presumably benefit from having the administration help clear away some of the federal red tape that typically pervades mining operations, including approval for the building of the Ambler Access Road, a 211-mile industrial road that would be used to transport the mined materials. The deal enables the government to acquire another 7.5% stake (12.3 million shares) in Trilogy at $0.01 a share if the road is completed in the next 10 years.
The government also agreed to fast-track various environmental approvals related to the Ambler’s location on previously protected Arctic lands (including some that are publicly owned)). The deal provides for warrants that would enable the government to acquire an additional 7.5% stake for $0.01 a share if the Ambler Access Road project is completed within the next 10 years.
Unlike with Intel and MP Materials, the deal with Trilogy would give the DoD a seat on Trilogy’s board. The government’s role in managing the company’s operations is passive, though as in previous transactions, it acquired veto rights over any proposed change-of-control transactions involving non-U.S. entities.
If the deal had closed on Oct. 6, 2025, the position (excluding warrants) would have roughly doubled, with gains of 100.4% as of May 7, 2026, with an approximate market value of $75,418,932.
Korea Zinc Inc.
Acquisition date: Dec. 15, 2025
Korea Zinc is publicly traded on the Korea Exchange, but is not generally accessible to most U.S. investors. However, the U.S. government is not “most U.S. investors.” In December 2025, Crucible JV, a joint venture of which the DoD owns 40.1%, acquired a 10.59% stake in Korea Zinc for KRW 2.86 trillion ($1.94 billion at contemporary exchange rates). In effect, this means that the U.S. indirectly holds a 4.25% stake that at time of the deal was valued at $773.9 million. (The other owners of the Crucible JV include Korea Zinc and a group of U.S. institutional investors whose identities were not disclosed.)
Korea Zinc benefited from the acquisition almost immediately, as it effectively helped the company fend off a hostile takeover attempt. The Crucible/U.S. deal also helped provide funding to build the Tennessee Smelter, a critical minerals smelter in Clarksville, Tenn. – both through the funds raised and through a $4.7 billion debt facility (backed by the Department of Defense and financial investors) alongside a $210 million CHIPS Act grant.
The U.S. government’s effective stake in Korea Zinc gives it a board seat on the Korean company, as well as significant operating control over the Tennessee facility. Furthermore, the deal stipulates that when the facility is commissioned, the U.S. will be able to exercise warrants to acquire a 14.5% in Korean Zinc’s U.S. subsidiary, Crucible Metals, at $0.01 a share
The acquisition agreement includes warrants that give the U.S. the right to acquire up to a 14.5% stake in the U.S. subsidiary, Crucible Metals LLC, at a strike price of $0.01 per share, exercisable upon the commissioning of the Tennessee Smelter, a critical minerals smelter in Clarksville, Tennessee. It also has veto power over any transaction that would transfer control to a non-U.S. entity.
The U.S. government and domestic customers get priority access to purchase 10 strategic minerals (Antimony, Gallium, Germanium, Bismuth, Indium, Tellurium, Cobalt, Nickel, Zinc, and Copper) produced at Korea Zinc’s Onsan Smelter in Ulsan, South Korea.
With the Trilogy deal yet to be closed, the Korea Zinc deal represents the first U.S. ownership stake in a foreign company.
Based on the ownership calculations and market cap prices of Korea Zinc as of May 7, 2026, the U.S. stake is currently worth about $1.013 billion, which amounts to an unrealized gain of 30.9% – inclusive of gains due to a strengthening of the South Korean won during this time period.
USA Rare Earth Inc. USA 0.35%
Acquisition date: Jan. 26, 2026
On January 26, 2026, the Commerce Department announced a $1.6 billion federal financing package that includes a $277 million direct equity investment and a $1.3 billion senior secured loan to USA Rare Earth. When (if) the deal closes, the U.S will acquire 16,100,000 shares (then priced at $17.17), in USA Rare Earth, a vertically integrated magnet miner and manufacturer. The deal also includes warrants to acquire another 17.6 million shares, also with an exercise price of $17.17 per share. (For purposes of this thought exercise we will assume that the deal closing will happen.)
From a strategic standpoint, the deal enabled USA Rare Earth to become a vertically integrated, completely domestic provider of NdFeB (Neodymium Iron Boron) magnets for use in Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter. It also provides a reliable revenue stream, as the U.S. acquiesced to a 10-year offtake agreement to purchase any remaining, unsold supplies of Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) and Dysprosium oxides for the National Defense Stockpile. These materials are used in not just stealth fighters, but precision munitions and radar systems as well.
As of May 7, 2026, the market value of the government stake was $424.7 million, representing a 53.6% return.
Lithium Americas Corp. LAC 4.31%
Acquisition Date: Oct. 7, 2025
On Oct. 7, 2025, U.S. Department of Energy acquired 10-year warrants to purchase 18,268,687 common shares of LAC 4.31% at $0.01 per share in exchange for a five-year deferral for $184 million in debt service on a $2.23B DOE loan made during the Biden administration. The DOE also acquired warrants to acquire a 5% stake in an LAC joint venture with General Motors to develop Thacker Pass, which geologists believe could prove to be the largest lithium deposit in the world. The deal involves providing LAC with much-welcomed liquidity during the capital-intensive initial stages of developing Thacker Pass.
LAC shares closed at $7.02 on Oct. 1, 2025, and they closed at $5.66 on May 7 – a 19.4% decline. However, we would argue that the cost basis to the government for exercising the warrants for 18,268,687 shares is $182,686.87 (1 cent per share), plus the time value of money from the delayed cash flows because the government is letting LAC defer the $184 million in debt service.
Assuming an interest rate of 5% and a lump-sum deferral for simplicity, the cost to the government works out to be roughly $39.4 million. So the cost for 18,268,687 shares would be $39,582,686.87 – or about $2.17 per share. So even though LAC shares have declined since the deal was announced, the government’s unexercised stake has increased in value by 154.4%.
Returns
Since the date of the first investment – in MP Materials – the Trump administration has caused U.S. taxpayers to acquire stakes in publicly traded companies at an aggregate cost basis of $12,626,082,687, based on the calculations above. As of May 7, 2026, we estimate that those stakes were aggregately worth $59,198,633,285. That means unrealized returns of 368.86% and annualized returns of 551.21%.
It’s worth noting that the U.S. taxpayer also has finalized or pending deals to acquire stakes in non-public companies, including XLight, Westinghouse, and Rocketdyne (the proposed name for a planned spinoff of L3 Harris’s rocket engine company). XLight and Rocketdyne are scheduled for IPOs later this year. Due to the difficulty in assigning valuations to such investments, we have omitted them from consideration.
It would be inaccurate to view the outsized numbers above as an assessment of President Trump’s investment acumen. In part, this is because neither maximizing returns nor minimizing risk were his objective. This would be akin to calling someone a fitness expert simply because they had become very strong as a result of their physically demanding job.
Furthermore, it’s undeniable that the companies above benefited to a significant extent from the imprimatur of the president’s blessing. Back in 1902, Trump’s predecessor Theodore Roosevelt famously described the presidency as the world’s greatest bully pulpit. That hasn’t changed.
The explicit endorsement by the president – and by extension the United States of America – often inspires confidence in investors, driving them to put their own money into play. It also encourages other companies to enter into constructive deals and partnerships. That in no way negates the value of the efforts, talent, and ingenuity that the executives and employees in these companies have contributed. Still, the president has the ability to make his investment picks a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy, something few if any investors or asset managers can do to even a limited extent.
As always, Signal From Noise should not be used as a source of investment recommendations but rather ideas for further investigation. We encourage you to explore our full Signal From Noise library, which includes deep dives on the recent gold rush, the future of malls, drone warfare, and the race to onshore chip fabrication. You can also find our take on space-exploration investments, defense stocks, and the rising wealth of women.
