-
XLF
-
$58.11
-
-0.77%
-
$58.56
-
$58.38
-
$57.92
Prices as of 2026-09-04 16:20:55 ET
Ticker Appearances
First Word
Fed Governor Waller leaning to "hold" pushes odds of a Sep hike down to 50% (on way to zero, in our view). We still expect "Sup"-tember, a contrarian bullish month.
VIDEO_:_ Fed Governor Waller indicated his inclination to hold in Sept, and his rationale focused on the fact that disinflationary forces are underway. This helped...
First Word
3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for upside breakout in equities. ETH +54% and just posted 30% weekly gain, largest since May 2025 and Nov 2021, both of which led to >167% subsequent gains.
VIDEO_:_ There are 3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for S&P 500 to reach 7,900-8,000 by month end. Moreover, leadership since June...
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First Word
The AI downstream trade continues to strengthen, particularly crypto. We look at equities most highly correlated to ETH and BTC. We also still expect S&P 500 7,900-8,000 by month-end
VIDEO_:_ The AI bottleneck story is stalling as data center opposition is now resonating with voters. This probably explains why crypto, particularly Ethereum, has been...
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First Word
A soft July Core CPI should lead to an upside breakout (our base case). $NVDA deal with Wall Street lowers cost of financing = higher AI P/E.
VIDEO_:_ We expect the July core CPI to be softer than consensus of +0.22% and thus lead to an upside breakout for equities. The driver...
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First Word
Markets still have excessive 'inflation derangement syndrome,' and July jobs and July CPI should quell some fears. We see S&P 500 reaching 7,900-8,000 by end of month
VIDEO_:_ We believe we are witnessing the 3rd derangement syndrome in 30 years. This time it is 'inflation derangement syndrome,' and this is causing investors to...
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First Word
Fed not expected to raise rates Wed, but QT could resume. MU P/E is 5.3X now vs 12.6X in Nov 2025... sell-off in bottlenecks seems overdone
VIDEO_:_ We would be surprised if the Fed hikes in the July meeting (Wed). There is a possibility the Fed might again resume QT, but...
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First Word
War could be escalating, triggering risk off. But we believe these pullbacks are ultimately buyable.
Equity markets are under pressure Thursday, ostensibly owing to two factors: (i) large-cap tech earnings that were not 'good enough' and (ii) escalation around the...
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First Word
Key development this week is inflation is resuming falling 'like a rock.' AI trade under pressure but much of it may be technical due to margin calls, while the fundamentals remain strong.
VIDEO_:_ The big stories this week are the continued selling in Korea/AI stocks and the downside surprise in CPI and PPI. In our view, the...
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Daily Technical Strategy
Monday's weakness doesn't threaten SPX's breakout, but both CPI and Bank earnings could prove important on Tuesday
US EQUITY TRENDS REMAIN BULLISH, AND MONDAY'S MINOR PULLBACK DID LITTLE DAMAGE TO LAST WEEK'S PUSH TO THE CUSP OF AN ^SPX -0.46% BREAKOUT. A DAILY...
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First Word
We continue to buy the dip in semis, memory and tech
VIDEO_:_ We are constructive near term as this pullback in semis, memory and tech and momentum seems to have created a good risk/reward. And in...
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First Word
Fed Governor Waller leaning to "hold" pushes odds of a Sep hike down to 50% (on way to zero, in our view). We still expect "Sup"-tember, a contrarian bullish month.
VIDEO_:_ Fed Governor Waller indicated his inclination to hold in Sept, and his rationale focused on the fact that disinflationary forces are underway. This helped...
First Word
3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for upside breakout in equities. ETH +54% and just posted 30% weekly gain, largest since May 2025 and Nov 2021, both of which led to >167% subsequent gains.
VIDEO_:_ There are 3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for S&P 500 to reach 7,900-8,000 by month end. Moreover, leadership since June...
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First Word
The AI downstream trade continues to strengthen, particularly crypto. We look at equities most highly correlated to ETH and BTC. We also still expect S&P 500 7,900-8,000 by month-end
VIDEO_:_ The AI bottleneck story is stalling as data center opposition is now resonating with voters. This probably explains why crypto, particularly Ethereum, has been...
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First Word
A soft July Core CPI should lead to an upside breakout (our base case). $NVDA deal with Wall Street lowers cost of financing = higher AI P/E.
VIDEO_:_ We expect the July core CPI to be softer than consensus of +0.22% and thus lead to an upside breakout for equities. The driver...
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First Word
Markets still have excessive 'inflation derangement syndrome,' and July jobs and July CPI should quell some fears. We see S&P 500 reaching 7,900-8,000 by end of month
VIDEO_:_ We believe we are witnessing the 3rd derangement syndrome in 30 years. This time it is 'inflation derangement syndrome,' and this is causing investors to...
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First Word
Fed not expected to raise rates Wed, but QT could resume. MU P/E is 5.3X now vs 12.6X in Nov 2025... sell-off in bottlenecks seems overdone
VIDEO_:_ We would be surprised if the Fed hikes in the July meeting (Wed). There is a possibility the Fed might again resume QT, but...
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First Word
War could be escalating, triggering risk off. But we believe these pullbacks are ultimately buyable.
Equity markets are under pressure Thursday, ostensibly owing to two factors: (i) large-cap tech earnings that were not 'good enough' and (ii) escalation around the...
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You have viewed the limit of 2 Macro reports for free this month.
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First Word
Key development this week is inflation is resuming falling 'like a rock.' AI trade under pressure but much of it may be technical due to margin calls, while the fundamentals remain strong.
VIDEO_:_ The big stories this week are the continued selling in Korea/AI stocks and the downside surprise in CPI and PPI. In our view, the...
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Daily Technical Strategy
Monday's weakness doesn't threaten SPX's breakout, but both CPI and Bank earnings could prove important on Tuesday
US EQUITY TRENDS REMAIN BULLISH, AND MONDAY'S MINOR PULLBACK DID LITTLE DAMAGE TO LAST WEEK'S PUSH TO THE CUSP OF AN ^SPX -0.46% BREAKOUT. A DAILY...
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First Word
We continue to buy the dip in semis, memory and tech
VIDEO_:_ We are constructive near term as this pullback in semis, memory and tech and momentum seems to have created a good risk/reward. And in...
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First Word
Fed Governor Waller leaning to "hold" pushes odds of a Sep hike down to 50% (on way to zero, in our view). We still expect "Sup"-tember, a contrarian bullish month.
VIDEO_:_ Fed Governor Waller indicated his inclination to hold in Sept, and his rationale focused on the fact that disinflationary forces are underway. This helped...
First Word
3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for upside breakout in equities. ETH +54% and just posted 30% weekly gain, largest since May 2025 and Nov 2021, both of which led to >167% subsequent gains.
VIDEO_:_ There are 3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for S&P 500 to reach 7,900-8,000 by month end. Moreover, leadership since June...
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You have viewed the limit of 2 Macro reports for free this month.
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First Word
The AI downstream trade continues to strengthen, particularly crypto. We look at equities most highly correlated to ETH and BTC. We also still expect S&P 500 7,900-8,000 by month-end
VIDEO_:_ The AI bottleneck story is stalling as data center opposition is now resonating with voters. This probably explains why crypto, particularly Ethereum, has been...
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First Word
A soft July Core CPI should lead to an upside breakout (our base case). $NVDA deal with Wall Street lowers cost of financing = higher AI P/E.
VIDEO_:_ We expect the July core CPI to be softer than consensus of +0.22% and thus lead to an upside breakout for equities. The driver...
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First Word
Markets still have excessive 'inflation derangement syndrome,' and July jobs and July CPI should quell some fears. We see S&P 500 reaching 7,900-8,000 by end of month
VIDEO_:_ We believe we are witnessing the 3rd derangement syndrome in 30 years. This time it is 'inflation derangement syndrome,' and this is causing investors to...
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First Word
Fed not expected to raise rates Wed, but QT could resume. MU P/E is 5.3X now vs 12.6X in Nov 2025... sell-off in bottlenecks seems overdone
VIDEO_:_ We would be surprised if the Fed hikes in the July meeting (Wed). There is a possibility the Fed might again resume QT, but...
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First Word
Key development this week is inflation is resuming falling 'like a rock.' AI trade under pressure but much of it may be technical due to margin calls, while the fundamentals remain strong.
VIDEO_:_ The big stories this week are the continued selling in Korea/AI stocks and the downside surprise in CPI and PPI. In our view, the...
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Daily Technical Strategy
Monday's weakness doesn't threaten SPX's breakout, but both CPI and Bank earnings could prove important on Tuesday
US EQUITY TRENDS REMAIN BULLISH, AND MONDAY'S MINOR PULLBACK DID LITTLE DAMAGE TO LAST WEEK'S PUSH TO THE CUSP OF AN ^SPX -0.46% BREAKOUT. A DAILY...
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First Word
We continue to buy the dip in semis, memory and tech
VIDEO_:_ We are constructive near term as this pullback in semis, memory and tech and momentum seems to have created a good risk/reward. And in...
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First Word
Carnage in Semis/Memory continue. But we remain near-term constructive and are buying the dip.
VIDEO_:_ In the near-term, we continue to be constructive and expect S&P 500 to reach 7,700 near-term, but the wall of worry continues to grow. ...
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