-
XLI
-
$175.27
-
+0.41%
-
$174.56
-
$175.78
-
$174.10
Prices as of 2026-09-04 16:20:55 ET
Ticker Appearances
First Word
Fed Governor Waller leaning to "hold" pushes odds of a Sep hike down to 50% (on way to zero, in our view). We still expect "Sup"-tember, a contrarian bullish month.
VIDEO_:_ Fed Governor Waller indicated his inclination to hold in Sept, and his rationale focused on the fact that disinflationary forces are underway. This helped...
Daily Technical Strategy
NVDA's 2028 revenue guide might help the stock push back to new all-time highs
EQUITY TRENDS VERY WELL COULD START PUSHING BACK TO NEW HIGHS IF NVDA 0.59% 'S 2028 REVENUE GUIDE CAN HELP THE STOCK MAINTAIN THE POST-MARKET GAINS BEING...
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First Word
3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for upside breakout in equities. ETH +54% and just posted 30% weekly gain, largest since May 2025 and Nov 2021, both of which led to >167% subsequent gains.
VIDEO_:_ There are 3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for S&P 500 to reach 7,900-8,000 by month end. Moreover, leadership since June...
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First Word
The AI downstream trade continues to strengthen, particularly crypto. We look at equities most highly correlated to ETH and BTC. We also still expect S&P 500 7,900-8,000 by month-end
VIDEO_:_ The AI bottleneck story is stalling as data center opposition is now resonating with voters. This probably explains why crypto, particularly Ethereum, has been...
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First Word
A soft July Core CPI should lead to an upside breakout (our base case). $NVDA deal with Wall Street lowers cost of financing = higher AI P/E.
VIDEO_:_ We expect the July core CPI to be softer than consensus of +0.22% and thus lead to an upside breakout for equities. The driver...
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First Word
Markets still have excessive 'inflation derangement syndrome,' and July jobs and July CPI should quell some fears. We see S&P 500 reaching 7,900-8,000 by end of month
VIDEO_:_ We believe we are witnessing the 3rd derangement syndrome in 30 years. This time it is 'inflation derangement syndrome,' and this is causing investors to...
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First to Market
Is a Continental Drift Coming for AI?
CHART OF THE DAY GOOD MORNING! For some weeks now, Prologis PLD -0.73% engaged in an attempted takeover of the UK's SEGRO, and on July 22,...
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Daily Technical Strategy
Thursday's bounce looks premature to trust with SPX pressing directly into trendline resistance
US EQUITIES ENJOYED THEIR BEST SESSION IN WEEKS ON THURSDAY, BUT WHILE A 1.5% BOUNCE LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON THE SURFACE, IT DID NOT EXCEED THE...
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First Word
Fed not expected to raise rates Wed, but QT could resume. MU P/E is 5.3X now vs 12.6X in Nov 2025... sell-off in bottlenecks seems overdone
VIDEO_:_ We would be surprised if the Fed hikes in the July meeting (Wed). There is a possibility the Fed might again resume QT, but...
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Daily Technical Strategy
Despite today’s breakdown, a QQQ trading low looks close at hand ahead of next week's Hyperscaler earnings
NOTE: I WILL BE OUT OF THE OFFICE ON MONDAY, JULY 27, AND TUESDAY, JULY 28. THERE WILL BE NO NOTES OR VIDEOS PUBLISHED ON...
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First Word
Fed Governor Waller leaning to "hold" pushes odds of a Sep hike down to 50% (on way to zero, in our view). We still expect "Sup"-tember, a contrarian bullish month.
VIDEO_:_ Fed Governor Waller indicated his inclination to hold in Sept, and his rationale focused on the fact that disinflationary forces are underway. This helped...
Daily Technical Strategy
NVDA's 2028 revenue guide might help the stock push back to new all-time highs
EQUITY TRENDS VERY WELL COULD START PUSHING BACK TO NEW HIGHS IF NVDA 0.59% 'S 2028 REVENUE GUIDE CAN HELP THE STOCK MAINTAIN THE POST-MARKET GAINS BEING...
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First Word
3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for upside breakout in equities. ETH +54% and just posted 30% weekly gain, largest since May 2025 and Nov 2021, both of which led to >167% subsequent gains.
VIDEO_:_ There are 3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for S&P 500 to reach 7,900-8,000 by month end. Moreover, leadership since June...
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First Word
The AI downstream trade continues to strengthen, particularly crypto. We look at equities most highly correlated to ETH and BTC. We also still expect S&P 500 7,900-8,000 by month-end
VIDEO_:_ The AI bottleneck story is stalling as data center opposition is now resonating with voters. This probably explains why crypto, particularly Ethereum, has been...
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First Word
A soft July Core CPI should lead to an upside breakout (our base case). $NVDA deal with Wall Street lowers cost of financing = higher AI P/E.
VIDEO_:_ We expect the July core CPI to be softer than consensus of +0.22% and thus lead to an upside breakout for equities. The driver...
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First Word
Markets still have excessive 'inflation derangement syndrome,' and July jobs and July CPI should quell some fears. We see S&P 500 reaching 7,900-8,000 by end of month
VIDEO_:_ We believe we are witnessing the 3rd derangement syndrome in 30 years. This time it is 'inflation derangement syndrome,' and this is causing investors to...
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First to Market
Is a Continental Drift Coming for AI?
CHART OF THE DAY GOOD MORNING! For some weeks now, Prologis PLD -0.73% engaged in an attempted takeover of the UK's SEGRO, and on July 22,...
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Daily Technical Strategy
Thursday's bounce looks premature to trust with SPX pressing directly into trendline resistance
US EQUITIES ENJOYED THEIR BEST SESSION IN WEEKS ON THURSDAY, BUT WHILE A 1.5% BOUNCE LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON THE SURFACE, IT DID NOT EXCEED THE...
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First Word
Fed not expected to raise rates Wed, but QT could resume. MU P/E is 5.3X now vs 12.6X in Nov 2025... sell-off in bottlenecks seems overdone
VIDEO_:_ We would be surprised if the Fed hikes in the July meeting (Wed). There is a possibility the Fed might again resume QT, but...
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Daily Technical Strategy
Despite today’s breakdown, a QQQ trading low looks close at hand ahead of next week's Hyperscaler earnings
NOTE: I WILL BE OUT OF THE OFFICE ON MONDAY, JULY 27, AND TUESDAY, JULY 28. THERE WILL BE NO NOTES OR VIDEOS PUBLISHED ON...
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First Word
Fed Governor Waller leaning to "hold" pushes odds of a Sep hike down to 50% (on way to zero, in our view). We still expect "Sup"-tember, a contrarian bullish month.
VIDEO_:_ Fed Governor Waller indicated his inclination to hold in Sept, and his rationale focused on the fact that disinflationary forces are underway. This helped...
Daily Technical Strategy
NVDA's 2028 revenue guide might help the stock push back to new all-time highs
EQUITY TRENDS VERY WELL COULD START PUSHING BACK TO NEW HIGHS IF NVDA 0.59% 'S 2028 REVENUE GUIDE CAN HELP THE STOCK MAINTAIN THE POST-MARKET GAINS BEING...
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First Word
3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for upside breakout in equities. ETH +54% and just posted 30% weekly gain, largest since May 2025 and Nov 2021, both of which led to >167% subsequent gains.
VIDEO_:_ There are 3 important clearing events this week, setting the stage for S&P 500 to reach 7,900-8,000 by month end. Moreover, leadership since June...
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First Word
The AI downstream trade continues to strengthen, particularly crypto. We look at equities most highly correlated to ETH and BTC. We also still expect S&P 500 7,900-8,000 by month-end
VIDEO_:_ The AI bottleneck story is stalling as data center opposition is now resonating with voters. This probably explains why crypto, particularly Ethereum, has been...
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First Word
A soft July Core CPI should lead to an upside breakout (our base case). $NVDA deal with Wall Street lowers cost of financing = higher AI P/E.
VIDEO_:_ We expect the July core CPI to be softer than consensus of +0.22% and thus lead to an upside breakout for equities. The driver...
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First Word
Markets still have excessive 'inflation derangement syndrome,' and July jobs and July CPI should quell some fears. We see S&P 500 reaching 7,900-8,000 by end of month
VIDEO_:_ We believe we are witnessing the 3rd derangement syndrome in 30 years. This time it is 'inflation derangement syndrome,' and this is causing investors to...
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You have viewed the limit of 2 Macro reports for free this month.
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Daily Technical Strategy
Thursday's bounce looks premature to trust with SPX pressing directly into trendline resistance
US EQUITIES ENJOYED THEIR BEST SESSION IN WEEKS ON THURSDAY, BUT WHILE A 1.5% BOUNCE LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON THE SURFACE, IT DID NOT EXCEED THE...
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First Word
Fed not expected to raise rates Wed, but QT could resume. MU P/E is 5.3X now vs 12.6X in Nov 2025... sell-off in bottlenecks seems overdone
VIDEO_:_ We would be surprised if the Fed hikes in the July meeting (Wed). There is a possibility the Fed might again resume QT, but...
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Daily Technical Strategy
Despite today’s breakdown, a QQQ trading low looks close at hand ahead of next week's Hyperscaler earnings
NOTE: I WILL BE OUT OF THE OFFICE ON MONDAY, JULY 27, AND TUESDAY, JULY 28. THERE WILL BE NO NOTES OR VIDEOS PUBLISHED ON...
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First Word
Key development this week is inflation is resuming falling 'like a rock.' AI trade under pressure but much of it may be technical due to margin calls, while the fundamentals remain strong.
VIDEO_:_ The big stories this week are the continued selling in Korea/AI stocks and the downside surprise in CPI and PPI. In our view, the...
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