Dollar & yields pressing higher, causing near-term stress

Key Takeaways

  • Stocks weakening specifically as US Dollar and Treasury yields are pressing higher
  • DXY pushed to multi-day highs post ECB, and both DXY, TNX should push higher
  • Small-caps have begun to outperform Large-cap which I see as constructive

Well, the short-term sideways consolidation was officially broken Thursday, setting up for a test of a very important SPX-3982, which marks the peak of the first rally off the 5/20 lows.  Providing this holds into next week, it’s still highly likely that S&P bottomed on May 20 and any pullback should prove minor and buyable. As discussed, I view Technology to have made a very impressive initial move off the lows, and breadth expanded measurably. In recent days however, stocks have weakened on much lighter volume and remain above important “lines in the sand” for SPX on pullbacks. Key for risk assets revolves around the US Dollar and yields pressing higher, as these rallying have coincided directly with S&P starting to weaken since June got underway.  At present, Equity index selloffs should prove temporary and despite Thursday’s weakness, it looks difficult to chase this decline on light volume heading into a very important jobs report Friday morning. While the back half of June might prove challenging, I’m still expecting that late June holds for pullbacks and should give way to a much more robust rally into September.

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