Early week strength still outweighs Friday weakness

This roller coaster of a week has taught us some valuable lessons, and it’s important to watch market breadth carefully during this stage of the decline along with what sectors are faring well, vs. which ones are still weakening.  Overall, the early week strength seen on Monday/Tuesday with outsized breadth still looks quite important and positive.  Moreover, the Thursday/Friday pullback really doesn’t take away from the benefits of what occurred earlier in the week, as it’s occurring on much lower negative breadth than the early week breadth surge.  Additionally, wave structure seems to suggest this move down is occurring in three waves, and my own analysis suggests SPX-3584 should not be taken out right away.  Rather, a bounce back higher should occur over the next 1-2 weeks.  Energy continues to work quite well, while Aerospace & Defense names are also holding up. Bottom line, the risk/reward is growing more positive in my view given that the downside risk looks very well defined at this past Monday 10/3 lows.  Unless $SPX 3584 is taken out, it’s right to buy this dip, expecting a push up into/post next week’s CPI.

Mid-caps are quietly breaking back out vs. Large-caps

Interestingly enough, the ratio charts of Mid-Cap Growth to Value show Growth to be breaking back out vs Value which is fascinating given the continued fascination on large-cap Growth.

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