US underperformance could reverse as Europe, China stall

The near-term choppiness really hasn’t been resolved, and the lack of volatility makes perfect sense nearing what’s expected to be one of the more important economic reports this month (in the form of Thursday’s CPI report). However, despite the churning in broader benchmark indices, sectors like Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Communication Services continue to chug along, and it remains US Technology underperformance which has kept domestic indices within downtrends while many parts of the world have shown sharp rallies.  Time-wise, this week does have particular significance, being 90 days from October 2022 lows and 180 days from last July’s bottom.  It’s expected that both DXY and TNX should be in a bottoming process, and TNX showed some minor evidence of rallying Tuesday.  The near-term risk/reward for longs seems poor this week headed into Thursday’s CPI and breaks of SPX-3877 would serve as an initial warning, while under 3800 should lead down under 3700 into late January.

SPY pullback hasn’t made a dent in long-term uptrend vs. ACWI

Despite a three-month decline in relative performance of SPY to $ACWI (Ishares MSCI All Country World index ETF) the long-term uptrend from 2009 lows remains very much intact.

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